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Why does option-implied volatility forecast realized volatility? Evidence from news events

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 156, 107019
This study examines the information content of stock option-implied volatility. We measure the arrival intensities and magnitudes of scheduled and unscheduled news as well as fundamental and non-fundamental news. Most of these news measures exhibit strong and positive associations with contemporaneous stock return volatility, and many of them can be predicted by implied volatility. Approximately one third of the predictive power of implied volatility on future realized volatility can be attributed to its ability to predict these news measures, with the majority of the predictive power arising from its capacity to predict the arrival intensities of both scheduled and unscheduled news. The predictive power is higher for fundamental news than for non-fundamental news.

CSR-contingent executive compensation contracts

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 151, 105655
Firms have increasingly started tying their executives’ compensation to CSR-related objectives. In this paper, we attempt to understand why firms offer CSR-contingent compensation and the conditions under which such compensation improves corporate social performance. Using hand-collected data from proxy statements, we find that this emerging compensation practice varies significantly across industries and across different CSR categories. Further, well-governed firms are more likely to offer CSR-contingent compensation, and such compensation does lead to higher corporate social standing. Such firms are more likely to offer formula-based, Objective CSR-contingent compensation. However, our results suggest that non-formulaic, Subjective CSR-contingent compensation also helps improve companies’ social performance when firm outcomes are more volatile and unpredictable, and therefore executives’ effort and performance are harder to evaluate, and when firms have better corporate governance.

Option Returns, Risk Premiums, and Demand Pressure in Energy Markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 146, 106687
We study energy futures option returns for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, and gasoline. Average call and put returns are negative at short maturities, more so for OTM options, and increase with maturity. Put returns are less negative than call returns, but this is not the case for delta-hedged returns, indicating that the aggregate risk of the underlying energy futures is priced in the raw option returns. Moneyness patterns in raw and delta-hedged returns are similar to patterns for index option returns. Significant differences between the four commodities remain after removing the effect of the underlying futures returns, with natural gas as the main outlier. Variance risk premiums are negative and explain some maturity patterns in returns, but they cannot account for return differences across markets. Energy producers are net short the underlying through their option positions, and speculators net long. The larger the net long position of the speculators, the lower the returns on call options, which suggests that demand from speculators may affect option returns in energy markets.

Imposing Choice on the Uninformed: The Case of Dynamic Currency Conversion

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 154, 106917 open access
Over the course of the past two decades, it has become a common experience for consumers authorizing an international transaction via credit card to be invited to choose the currency in which they wish the transaction to be executed. While this choice, made feasible by a technology known as dynamic currency conversion (DCC), seems to foster competition, we argue that the opposite is the case. In fact, the unique pure-strategy equilibrium in a natural fee-setting game, with uninformed and possibly inattentive consumers, turns out to be highly asymmetric, entailing fees for the service provider that persistently exceed the monopoly level. Although losses in welfare may be substantial, a regulatory solution is unlikely to come about due to a global free-rider problem.

Homophilous intensity in the online lending market: Bidding behavior and economic effects

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 152, 106876
Using transaction-level data from a large online lending marketplace, we explore the role of homophilous intensity in online lending and uncover the evidence of a significant impact of homophily on the bidding behavior and economic effects of both lenders and borrowers. Lenders are more likely to invest in borrowers with more homophilous traits, and homophily induces higher bidding amounts. Moreover, lenders charge lower prices to more homophilous borrowers, but are able to earn higher returns due to better repayment from these borrowers. Our findings suggest that homophilous intensity has a statistically and economically significant effect on both borrowers and lenders in the online lending environment.

Minority shareholder voting and dividend policy

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 148, 106748
We find that minority shareholders’ voting opposition to dividend proposals is associated with significantly higher cash dividend payout in the following year for stocks listed in Shanghai Stock Exchange. When minority shareholders’ voting opposition increases, the likelihood and frequency of regulatory penalties increase. The reverse happens after firms increase dividend payout. Minority shareholders’ voting opposition has a stronger positive effect on cash dividend payout when they post more messages in stock forums and when independent directors express dissenting opinions. The effect is weaker if the board chair or CEO has political connections. Minority shareholders’ voting opposition does not have significant effects on the growth rate of earnings and the level of earnings management. But we do find evidence that minority shareholder voting opposition reduces expropriation by major shareholders. The evidence supports a hypothesis that regulators use the minority shareholder voting results to screen out possible cases of shareholder oppression.

Downside variance premium, firm fundamentals, and expected corporate bond returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 154, 106946 open access
We find a strong and robust positive relationship between individual downside variance premia (DVP)–the difference between risk-neutral and physical expected downside variances–and future corporate bond returns. The spread portfolio that longs the high DVP bond portfolio and shorts the low DVP bond portfolio earns a statistically significant excess return of 0.37% (0.42%) per month in value- (equal-)weighted returns. The alpha estimates from various factor models remain statistically significant and economically substantial. The predictive power of the downside variance premium is stronger in noninvestment-grade (long-maturity) corporate bonds than in investment-grade (short-maturity) bonds. We show that the downside variance premium positively relates to the likelihood of future default and cash flow uncertainty and negatively relates to future cash flows.

Behavioral bias, distorted stock prices, and stock splits

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 154, 106939 open access
We propose that firms use stock splits as a means of attracting attention and inducing information production to correct price distortion caused by investors’ 52-week high anchoring bias. Our analysis shows that firms are more likely to split stocks when their prices are near 52-week highs, especially if they are highly profitable and undervalued. After splits, undervaluation gradually disappears. Moreover, these splits are associated with a slower market reaction and a more positive post-split drift, consistent with the notion that investors’ anchoring bias hinders price adjustment, leading to a gradual price correction. In addition, the likelihood of such splits increases with CEO wealth-performance sensitivity, and investment-price sensitivity increases following splits. Our evidence suggests that firms utilize stock splits to correct mispricing induced by investors’ 52-week high anchoring bias.

Employment protection and the provision of trade credit

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 155, 106991 open access
Improved employment protection may affect corporate trade credit decisions due to increased labor costs. Using the staggered adoption of U.S. state-level Wrongful Discharge Laws as a quasi-natural experiment, we find that suppliers’ provision of trade credit decreases significantly with better labor protection. The trade credit reduction is more pronounced for firms with higher distress risk, financial constraints, and operating leverage. Firms operating in states with lower unionization and in industries with higher labor turnover, and greater product market competition cut their trade credit more. The decrease in trade credit supply also varies with the type of products sold and customer concentration.

Functional distance and bank loan pricing: Evidence from the opening of high-speed railway in China

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 149, 106810
Employing the staggered opening of the High-speed railway (HSR) as an exogenous shock, this paper examines the impact of functional distance on bank loan pricing. Based on a unique loan-level dataset from a nationwide state-owned Chinese commercial bank, we find that after the HSR opening, the loan pricing of local private firms decreases significantly. The possible channel is the facilitating of bank's easier access to soft information through the shortening of temporal functional distance. Moreover, the effect of HSR opening is more pronounced when the borrowing firm is difficult to visit or when loan pricing is more sensitive to information. We also find that the HSR opening increases the loan volume for local private firms, while there are no significant changes in loan pricing or loan volume for public firms with HSR opening. Our main conclusion remains valid after considering various robustness and endogeneity issues.