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Financial market development and the importance of internal cash: Evidence from international data

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(3), 641-658
We examine the impact of financial market development on the extent to which firms have to rely on internal capital for making investments. Using international data from 31 countries for the 1987–1997 period, we find evidence of a negative relationship between financial market development and the importance of internal capital. The evidence is consistent across different estimation procedures, alternative measures of financial constraints and cash flow, and the use of bootstrapped standard errors. Finally, we find that the distortionary effect of negative cash flow observations reported earlier for US data extends to international data as well.

Implied volatility and future portfolio returns

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(10), 3183-3199
Prior studies find that the CBOE volatility index (VIX) predicts returns on stock market indices, suggesting implied volatilities measured by VIX are a risk factor affecting security returns or an indicator of market inefficiency. We extend prior work in three important ways. First, we investigate the relationship between future returns and current implied volatility levels and innovations. Second, we examine portfolios sorted on book-to-market equity, size, and beta. Third, we control for the four Fama and French [Fama, E., French, K., 1993. Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics 33, 3–56.] and Carhart [Carhart, M., 1997. On persistence in mutual fund performance. Journal of Finance, 52, 57–82.] factors. We find that VIX-related variables have strong predictive ability.

Corporate valuation around the world: The effects of governance, growth, and openness

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(1), 35-56 open access
The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of corporate valuation around the world. Specifically, we (i) document and compare corporate valuation around the world, and (ii) identify the key factors that drive cross-country differences in valuation. In doing so, we utilize the country-level Tobin’s q (CTQ), computed as the ratio of the aggregate market value to book value of all assets held by all public firms domiciled in a country, which amounts to the Tobin’s q for the ‘market portfolio’ of the country. The key findings of the paper are: First, CTQ varies greatly across countries, ranging from 0.73 for Venezuela to 2.11 for Finland, with the international mean of 1.30 during our sample period 1999–2004. Despite the steady integration of the world economy in recent years, corporate valuation remains starkly different across countries. Second, apart from the effect of corporate governance, cross-country differences in corporate valuation are significantly driven by the growth options of countries represented by the R&D intensities, capital expenditures, and GDP growth. In addition, the degree of capital market openness has a significant, independent effect on valuation. Third, our regression analyses show that CTQ varies directly with shareholder rights, enforcement of insider trading laws, GDP growth, R&D intensity, and the degree of capital market openness. The key findings remain robust to the inclusion of inflation and industry effects.

Privatization as an agency problem: Auctions versus private negotiations

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(9), 2730-2750
This paper investigates the design of privatization mechanisms in emerging market economies characterized by political constraints that limit the set of viable privatization options. Our objective is to explain the striking diversity of mechanisms observed in practice and the frequent use of an apparently sub-optimal privatization mechanism: private negotiations. We develop a simple model in which privatization is to be carried out by a government agent, who plays favorites among bidders but is potentially disciplined by losing his private benefits of staying in office. If the political environment is such that the privatization agent himself aims at raising the fair value for the company, then privatization auctions and private negotiations are equally successful in raising public revenues. If, however, political considerations distort the agent’s incentives, it may be that a seemingly transparent auction will raise less revenue, than opaque private negotiations. We also show that information disclosure laws may have negative welfare implications: they may help the privatization agent to collude with some of the bidders to the disadvantage of non-colluding bidders.

Convergence and risk-return linkages across financial service firms

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(4), 1167-1190
We examine the risk and return linkages across US commercial banks, securities firms, and life insurance companies during the 1991–2001 period. After controlling for changes in the broader stock market, interest rates, and foreign currency values, we find that return and risk interdependencies across these financial firms are significant and size-varying; larger institutions display stronger volatility transmission linkages, while smaller ones exhibit more prominent return-related linkages. The tighter link in risk among large financial institutions (FIs) suggests stronger convergence, employment of common models of risk measurement and risk management, and more intense inter-industry competition, particularly between large banks and large securities firms, compared to smaller institutions. Lack of risk spillover among smaller FIs confirms the intuition that they typically assume more localized and idiosyncratic risk. The co-movement of stock returns among smaller FIs has been helped by the effects of locally based factors, such as economic conditions and state regulations, on all such institutions, and a less diversified product set. Differences in spillover patterns between large and smaller institutions have implications on investment choices and mergers and acquisitions in the industry. Introduction of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (1999) has had dissimilar effects on the riskiness of large versus smaller life insurance and securities firms, and an insignificant effect on commercial banks.

Modelling the economic value of credit rating systems

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(1), 181-198
In this paper we develop a model of the economic value of credit rating systems. Increasing international competition and changes in the regulatory framework driven by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (Basel II) called forth incentives for banks to improve their credit rating systems. An improvement of the statistical power of a rating system decreases the potential effects of adverse selection, and, combined with meeting several qualitative standards, decreases the amount of regulatory capital requirements. As a consequence, many banks have to make investment decisions where they have to consider the costs and the potential benefits of improving their rating systems. In our model the quality of a rating system depends on several parameters such as the accuracy of forecasting individual default probabilities and the rating class structure. We measure effects of adverse selection in a competitive one-period framework by parameterizing customer elasticity. Capital requirements are obtained by applying the current framework released by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Results of a numerical analysis indicate that improving a rating system with low accuracy to medium accuracy can increase the annual rate of return on a portfolio by 30–40bp. This effect is even stronger for banks operating in markets with high customer elasticity and high loss rates. Compared to the estimated implementation costs banks could have a strong incentive to invest in their rating systems. The potential of reduced capital requirements on the portfolio return is rather weak compared to the effect of adverse selection.

European banking: An overview

Journal of Banking & Finance 2007 31(7), 1911-1935
Against a background of far-reaching structural change in the banking sector, this article reviews the recent academic literature on developments in European banking. European banking markets have become increasingly integrated in recent years, but barriers to full integration, especially in retail banking, still remain. European integration has possible implications for systemic risk, and poses various challenges for the current supervisory framework. The banks’ responses to the changing competitive environment include the pursuit of strategies of diversification, vertical product differentiation and consolidation. European integration has implications for competition in banking markets, for the nature of long-term borrower-lender relationships, and for the relationships between ownership structure, technological change and bank efficiency. The article concludes by reviewing recent literature on the credit channel in the monetary transmission mechanism, and interest rate pass-through.