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Who is the more overconfident trader? Individual vs. institutional investors

Journal of Banking & Finance 2011 35(7), 1626-1644
Guided by the Gervais and Odean (2001) overconfident trading hypothesis, we comprehensively investigate the trading behavior of individual vs. institutional investors in Taiwan in an attempt to identify who is the more overconfident trader. Conditional on the various states of the market, on market volatility, and on the risk level of the securities they trade, we find that both individual and institutional investors trade more aggressively following market gains in bull markets, in up-market states, in up-momentum market states, and in low-volatility market states and that only individual investors trade more in riskier securities following market gains. More importantly, we find that individual investors trade more aggressively following market gains in the three conditional states of the market and in high-volatility market states than institutional investors. Also, individual investors trade more in relatively riskier securities following gains than institutional investors. These findings provide evidence that individual investors are more overconfident traders than institutional investors.

No-Arbitrage pricing of GDP-Linked bonds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 126, 106075
We develop a novel term-structure model for pricing GDP-linked bonds, hypothetical securities with cash-flows indexed to the level of U.S. GDP. For this purpose, we rely on a term-structure model of equity yields estimated using the prices of dividend swaps, which we assume span GDP growth. Our approach provides a novel way of estimating the relative cost of conventional and GDP-linked bonds, as well as measuring more general market-based expectations of (and risks around) GDP growth. Our model predicts that U.S. GDP-linked bonds would typically have yields lower than those on conventional Treasury bonds with the same maturity in our sample from 2010 to 2017. Positive expected future GDP growth lowers the yield on GDP-linked bonds relative to conventional bonds, which typically more than offsets the estimated GDP risk premium demanded by investors for holding GDP risk.

Institutional investors’ horizon and equity-financed payouts

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 134, 106324
Farre-Mensa, Michaely and Schmalz (2018) document that many firms issue new equity to finance their payouts to shareholders, despite the substantial cost of equity issuance. We find that equity-financed payouts are related to institutional investors’ horizon. Specifically, firms with a larger ownership by short-horizon institutions are more likely to have equity-financed discretionary payouts, and firms with equity-financed discretionary payouts tend to cut down their investments in the following years. Our results suggest that investor short-termism has significant effects on firms’ payout, financing and investment policies.

Agency problems in firms with an even number of directors: Evidence from China

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 93, 139-150
To avoid a tie in voting, most boards have an odd number of directors. We argue that boards with an even number of directors are more likely to be weak monitors because of inefficient decision making and being captured by controlling shareholders. Consistent with this argument, we find that in China boards with an even number of directors have fewer meetings and are more likely to have board members absent from board meetings. Firms with an even number of directors have more tunnelling through intercorporate loans and related party transactions, lower financial reporting quality and higher incidence of accounting irregularities. This evidence is stronger in firms with weaker external monitoring and for directors with weaker incentives to monitor. Finally, we show that firms with an even number of directors are associated with lower market valuation of equity. Our results suggest that corporate boards with an even number of directors in emerging markets are associated with more agency problems.

Capital structure and executive compensation contract design: A theoretical and empirical analysis

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(1), 209-224
Compensation contracts including incentive instruments not only provide executives with positive incentives to increase shareholder wealth, but also create a negative value-dilution effect for existing shareholders. This study investigates this dilemma by conducting a benefit-cost analysis under a proposed structural form valuation framework. Our design mechanism shows that, given their firms’ current capital structure, shareholders are always capable of designing an optimal compensation contract to maximize their wealth. Due to the different research issue and assumptions, unlike findings of most previous studies, our model proposes that in a firm with a higher leverage ratio shareholders should provide a contract with higher incentive intensity for managers, and this proposition is supported by the empirical analyses which examine the sample of S&P index firms over the period 1992–2006 after adopting an updated fixed effects model.

Specialists as risk managers: The competition between intermediated and non-intermediated markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2011 35(1), 51-66
We develop a model that analyzes competition between a non-intermediated market (such as an electronic communications network) and an intermediated market (such as via the market specialist’s structure within the NYSE) when both markets are allowed to trade the same securities. Specialists are viewed as providers of a “volatility dampening” service, a mechanism for reducing round-trip trading costs, as well as an “order execution risk management” service. The economic value of these three specialist services is determined by five key factors (the difference in spreads between the two financial market types, investors’ holding periods, the specialist’s quoted spread in relation to the asset’s price, the relative probability of executing an order in the intermediated market, and the short-term risk-free rate).

Climate risk and payout flexibility around the world

Journal of Banking & Finance 2024 166, 107233 open access
Using a large sample of firms from 45 countries, we find that firms in countries with high-climate risk reduce their cash dividends but increasingly use share repurchases to make payouts. The evidence suggests that firms substitute dividends with repurchases to increase their payout flexibility in response to heightened climate risk. Operating volatility and financial constraints are two channels through which climate risk affects firms’ payout flexibility. Further analysis shows that the effect of climate risk on payout flexibility is more pronounced for firms that are more vulnerable to climate risk, and in countries where people are more concerned about climate risk and the national culture emphasizes uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation.

Information environment and investor behavior

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 59, 250-264
Market reactions to non-fundamental news (or no-news) reverse for extreme firm information environments. A one percentage increase in intangible returns for small firms (large firms) lead to a 2.33% decrease (0.70% increase) in monthly returns over the next 12months. The results are robust to firm characteristics adjustments, alternative measures of firm information environment and private information, idiosyncratic risk, and microstructure effects. The results are consistent with the cross-sectional findings of confirmation bias, where investors show stronger bias when the information environment is rich. We derive a model with confirmation bias that further explains the cross-sectional momentum pattern for the majority of firms in the market.

Corporate social responsibility in the banking industry: Motives and financial performance

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(9), 3529-3547
The current study investigates the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial performance (FP), and discusses the driving motives of banks to engage in CSR. Three motives, namely, strategic choices, altruism, and greenwashing, suggest that the relationship between CSR and FP is positive, non-negative, and non-existent, respectively. We obtained our sample, which covered 2003–2009, from the Ethical Investment Research Service (EIRIS) databank and Bankscope database. The data consists of 162 banks in 22 countries. We then classified the banks into four types based on their degree of engagement in CSR. This study proposes the use of an extended version of the Heckman two-step regression, in which the first step adopts a multinomial logit model, and the second step estimates the performance equation with the inverse Mills ratio generated by the first step. The empirical results show that CSR positively associates with FP in terms of return on assets, return on equity, net interest income, and non-interest income. In contrast, CSR negatively associates with non-performing loans. Hence, strategic choice is the primary motive of banks to engage in CSR.