To make high-quality research more accessible and easier to explore.

Fields:

Quality of PIN estimates and the PIN-return relationship

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 43, 137-149
This paper provides new evidence concerning the probability of informed trading (PIN) and the PIN-return relationship. We take measures to overcome known estimation biases and improve the quality of quarterly PIN estimates. We use the average of a firm’s PIN estimates in four consecutive quarters to smooth out the effect of seasonal variation in trading activities. We find that when high-quality PIN estimates are used, the Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regressions show stronger evidence for the positive PIN-return relationship than documented in the prior literature. This finding is robust to controls for the January, liquidity, and momentum effects.