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Implicit government guarantees and credit ratings

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 69, 102046
Exploiting the first default of a state-owned enterprise (SOE) in China, we analyze the role of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings. We consider two causes of implicit government guarantees. First, we suggest a “too big to fail” effect by revealing positive associations between credit ratings and issuer size, number of employees and taxes paid. Second, we propose a “government link” effect by showing positive associations between credit ratings and an issuer's state ownership, indicators for SOEs and central SOEs. Importantly, after the first SOE default, both dimensions of implicit government guarantees are weakened when explaining credit rating variations. Extending to analyses of yield spreads, we find that debt pricing relies more on credit ratings after the default event, consistent with bond investors weighing credit ratings more with weakened beliefs in implicit government guarantees. Collectively, our study proposes two dimensions of implicit government guarantees in credit ratings and shows how the initial SOE default significantly changes the role of such guarantees in credit ratings.

Foreign residency rights and corporate fraud

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 51, 142-163
We examine whether Chinese firms whose controlling persons have foreign residency rights are more likely to engage in corporate fraud. We find a positive association between foreign residency rights and corporate fraud with causality likely going from the former to the latter. Such a finding is robust to an estimation of a bivariate probit model that incorporates undetected fraud. In the cross section, higher managerial ownership, greater analyst coverage and higher institutional holdings mitigate this association. The link, however, diminishes in more recent years after high-profile extraditions of businessmen and regulatory focus on foreign residency rights in the political sector. We conclude that a lower expected probability of getting caught and punished associated with executives with foreign residency rights induces corporate fraud.