We investigate the capital structure of pioneering startup firms, which are frequently credited with opening new markets and niches in the digital era and often face the threat of the potential entry of successful, cash-rich firms from adjacent markets. Our analysis is made in the context of a winner-take-all competition in the form of an all-pay auction for the monopolistic position in a new market. We show that a pioneer's optimal capital structure exhibits widespread diversity and is determined by a tradeoff between entry deterrence and post-entry competition intensification. A pure-equity (a mixture of equity and risky debt) structure is optimal when (1) barriers to entry are small (large), (2) the future prospect of the new market is fairly certain and/or, (3) the new market is likely (unlikely) to create large externalities on the potential entrant's existing business. The post-entry competition is likely to engender large losses to both the winner and the loser.

Using finite mixture models, we find that financial distress is related to realized return negatively (positively) for one (the other) latent group. The negative (positive) relation concentrates in firms with large negative (positive) realized return; the likelihood for a firm to be in the latent group with a positive relation is negatively related to its price-to-value ratio estimate and mispricing score, both of which measure relative mispricing. The mispricing-correction component of realized return is negative (positive) for overvalued (undervalued) firms and decreases (increases) with corrected overvaluation (undervaluation). Overall, our findings are consistent with the view that mispricing—undervaluation and overvaluation—is larger for firms with higher financial distress. Evident in our findings, an overall negative relation between financial distress and realized return is driven by the negative relation between financial distress and the mispricing-correction component for overvalued firms and, therefore, it is not at odds with the risk-reward paradigm. • The relation between distress and realized return is positive (negative) for undervalued (overvalued) firms. • The negative overall relation between distress and realized return does not contradict the risk-reward paradigm. • Zhuo (June) Cheng acknowledges financial support from Hong Kong SAR Research Grants Council, China (#15506018).

Migrant welfare policies serve as crucial institutional levers for achieving sustainable urban development, yet the underlying mechanisms through which they influence firm value remain largely underexplored. This study proposes a new method for measuring the level of urban migrant welfare policies based on policy text scoring, and, using Chinese data, explores the impact of urban migrant welfare on corporate value and its underlying mechanisms. We find relatively robust evidence consistent with urban migrant welfare policies spilling over onto local corporate value. Mechanism tests suggest that these policies enhance corporate value by improving human capital allocation, promoting corporate social responsibility, and fostering innovation. The positive effect is more pronounced for firms in the growth stage and those operating in less competitive industries. Furthermore, we show that local fiscal capacity acts as a binding constraint: the value-enhancing effect of migrant welfare policies depends on sufficient fiscal resources for implementation. Our findings provide a new methodological perspective on quantifying policy text and elucidate the micro-foundations of how public policy shapes corporate performance.