Knowledge that Transforms

The list below specifies doctoral degrees conferred by U.S. and Canadian universities during academic year July 2013 to June 2014. Lists of degree recipients and subject classifications are provided by the university. Note: Dissertations without classifications may be found under “Y Miscellaneous Categories.”

Public policy setting often involves quantitative choices with quantitative outcomes. Yet unqualified statements about the precise consequences of alternative choices characterize much of the policy analysis bearing on these decisions. Public Policy in an Uncertain World: Analysis and Decisions by Charles F. Manski characterizes and richly illustrates the nature of this unwarranted certitude. It details specific constructive alternatives on which the economics profession has achieved varying degrees of consensus. Those in our profession charged with the education of future policy analysts should consider using it and how to round out its presentation of decision making from their own perspective. (JEL D02, D04, D80, E61)

This essay reviews Lawrence Freedman's book Strategy: A History. The main themes—definitions, strategies in war, business, politics, and revolutions—are overviewed. The value of game-theoretic thinking for practical strategy is assessed. A critical discussion of some concepts and dichotomies emphasized by Freedman, e.g., strategy is governed by the starting point, not the end point, and of the role of stories and scripts in strategy, follows. (JEL A11, A12, C70, D74)

What are the ethical implications of our contributions to global warming on an individual level? In his extended essay, John Broome analyzes the moral implications of our imposing damages on future generations through our greenhouse-gas emissions. He argues that we as individuals owe restitution to those who are in the future damaged by these unjust acts. He suggests that restitution can be accomplished by completely offsetting emissions and thereby having a zero carbon footprint. This review examines the force of his arguments and suggests that offsetting emissions on an individual basis is an imperfect substitute for collective action or more encompassing contributions to those hurt by our externalities. (JEL D63, Q21, Q54, Q58)

Herein, I review Peter Temin’s book, The Roman Market Economy, and take the occasion to alert economists to the exciting work that is being done and could be done in the economic history of the ancient world. (JEL C80, N01, N13, N73)

Gary Fethke and Andrew Policano's book Public No More: A New Path to Excellence for America's Public Universities paints a picture of a future for public research universities that is very different than what many people will want to see. Their message is that the financial and governance models under which public universities have operated have broken down and that new models are required. While I do not always agree with their prescriptions, I argue that private research universities face many of the same issues as their public counterparts and that this book deserves to be widely read by all people concerned with the future of American higher education. (JEL H75, I22, I23, I28)

Most macroeconomic models for monetary policy analysis are approximated around a zero inflation steady state, but most central banks target an inflation rate of about 2 percent. Many economists have recently proposed even higher inflation targets to reduce the incidence of the zero lower bound constraint on monetary policy. In this survey, we show that the conduct of monetary policy should be analyzed by appropriately accounting for the positive trend inflation targeted by policymakers. We first review empirical research on the evolution and dynamics of U.S. trend inflation and some proposed new measures to assess the volatility and persistence of trend-based inflation gaps. We then construct a Generalized New Keynesian model that accounts for a positive trend inflation. In this model, an increase in trend inflation is associated with a more volatile and unstable economy and tends to destabilize inflation expectations. This analysis offers a note of caution regarding recent proposals to address the existing zero lower bound problem by raising the long-run inflation target. (JEL E12, E31, E32, E52, E58)

Cities are the cradle of a wide range of cultural, social, and technological innovations that are at the heart of modern economic growth and development. Half of humanity today lives in cities but, until the last two decades, economists have paid much less attention to cities than have other social scientists. By contrast, geographers have long studied the role of cities in human affairs. Michael Batty, a distinguished scholar in the field of human geography, has recently written The New Science of Cities, a synthesis of his work and of some other prominent urban geographers. A review of his book is the first objective of this essay. The second is to discuss and compare the tools and concepts developed by urban economists with those of urban geographers in the hope of triggering a fruitful debate between those two groups of social scientists. (JEL R10, R23, R30, R40, R58)