Knowledge that Transforms

We investigate the effect of income on the long-standing racial mortality gap in the United States by using evidence from White and Black Civil War veterans who went on to receive postwar pensions. To circumvent endogeneity, we propose an exogenous source of variation in pension income: the judgment of the doctors who certified disability. We find large effects of pension income on longevity; large enough to close the Black–White mortality gap, in principle. However, because physicians discriminated against Blacks when evaluating the existence and severity of disabilities, Blacks received reduced pension benefits that failed to eliminate racial mortality gaps in practice. Our findings shed light on the role of beliefs about race, as opposed to racial animus, in contributing to racial differentials in well-being.

We review the recent literature on rational inattention, identify the main theoretical mechanisms, and explain how it helps us understand a variety of phenomena across fields of economics. The theory of rational inattention assumes that agents cannot process all available information, but they can choose which exact pieces of information to attend to. Several important results in economics have been built around imperfect information. Nowadays, many more forms of information than ever before are available due to new technologies, and yet we are able to digest little of it. Which form of imperfect information we possess and act upon is thus largely determined by which information we choose to pay attention to. These choices are driven by current economic conditions and imply behavior that features numerous empirically supported departures from standard models. Combining these insights about human limitations with the optimizing approach of neoclassical economics yields a new, generally applicable model.

Macroeconomic development remains an important policy goal because of its ability to lift entire populations out of poverty. In our review of the literature, we emphasize that the best way to achieve this objective is to embrace a synthesis of methods and ideas, with the science of experiments as a unifying feature. Randomized controlled trials need representative data and structural modeling, and macro models need to be designed and disciplined to the realities and data of developing-country economies. Macroeconomic models have key lessons for gathering and analyzing micro evidence and for moving to an evaluation of macro policy. Resource constraints, heterogeneity, general equilibrium effects, obstacles to trade, dynamics, and returns to scale can all play key roles. A synthesis for macro development is well under way.

A standard conception of meritocracy, reflected in state referenda and the many legal filings against university admissions policies, is that selection rules should be blind to group identity and monotonic in measures of past accomplishment. We present theoretical arguments and survey empirical evidence challenging this view. Past accomplishment is often a garbled signal of multiple traits, some of which matter more for future performance than others. In such cases, group identity can be informative as a predictor of success and the increased representation of resource-disadvantaged groups could improve organizational performance. This perspective helps explain some recent empirical findings regarding the efficiency effects of group-contingent selection and moves us toward a conception of meritocracy more closely tied to organizational mission.

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivates this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis (or “scarring” in recent parlance) has been sparked by the persistent impact of the global financial crisis —as GDP in advanced economies remained far below the precrisis trends for over a decade—and recent concerns about the lasting impact of the COVID-19 shock. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

In principle, firms in developing countries benefit from the fact that advanced technologies and products have already been developed in industrialized countries and can simply be adopted, a process often referred to as industrial upgrading. But for many firms this advantage remains elusive. What is getting in the way? This paper reviews recent firm-level empirical research on the determinants of upgrading in developing countries. The first part focuses on how to define and measure various dimensions of upgrading—learning, quality upgrading, technology adoption, and product innovation. The second part takes stock of recent evidence on the drivers of upgrading, classifying them as output-side drivers, input-side drivers, or drivers of know-how. I conclude with some thoughts about promising directions for research in the area.

The categories listed below are used to classify books, book reviews, journal articles, and dissertations indexed in JEL, JEL on CD, EconLit. New changes to the classification system appear as soon as possible on www.econlit.org . The JEL classification system may be used freely for scholarly purposes. We suggest the following format: “JEL: A10, B10, etc.”

The list below specifies doctoral degrees conferred by U.S. and Canadian universities during academic year July 2021 to June 2022. Lists of degree recipients and subject classifications are provided by the university. Note: Dissertations without classifications may be found under “Y Miscellaneous Categories.”