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Volatility Increases Subsequent to NYSE and Amex Stock Splits.

Journal of Finance 1991 46(1), 421-31
The post-split increase in daily returns volatility is less for AMEX stocks than for NYSE stocks. The exchange trading location is a significant factor in explaining the volatility shift even after stock price and firm size are considered. Furthermore, when measured on a weekly basis, there is no increase in AMEX stocks' returns volatility. These results suggest that measurement errors created by bid-ask spreads and the 1/8 effect, and also one or more of the elements that make the NYSE different from the AMEX, explain why the estimated volatility of daily stock returns increases after the ex split date.

Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets.

Journal of Finance 1991 46(5), 1839-77
After the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, interest in nonlinear dynamics, especially deterministic chaotic dynamics, has increased in both the financial press and the academic literature. This has come about because the frequency of large moves in stock markets is greater than would be expected under a normal distribution. There are a number of possible explanations. A popular one is that the stock market is governed by chaotic dynamics. What exactly is chaos and how is it related to nonlinear dynamics? How does one detect chaos? Is there chaos in financial markets? Are there other explanations of the movements of financial prices other than chaos? The purpose of this paper is to explore these issues.

High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes

Journal of Finance 1990
On the trading day prior to holidays, stocks advance with disproportionate frequency and show high mean returns averaging nine to fourteen times the mean return for the remaining days of the year. Over one third of the total return accruing to the market portfolio over the 1963–1982 period was earned on the eight trading days which each year fall before holiday market closings. Examination of hourly pre-holiday stock returns reveals high returns throughout the day. Pre-holiday stock returns in the post-test 1983–1986 period are also examined.

Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 1307
Empirical evidence of time varying term premia in bond returns is frequently interpreted as evidence against the Expectations Hypothesis. This paper shows that the Expectations Hypothesis can actually imply time varying term premia if the time frame for which the Expectations Hypothesis holds differs from the return measurement period. Furthermore, many of the properties of these term premia are consistent with those of observed term premia. These results are important because they imply that the case against the Expectations Hypothesis is weaker than claimed in the empirical literature.

Pricing Options with Extendible Maturities: Analysis and Applications

Journal of Finance 1990 45(3), 935
Many common types of financial contracts incorporate options with extendible maturities. This paper derives closed-form expressions for options that can be extended by the optionholder and presents a number of applications including the valuation of American options with stochastic dividends, junk bonds, and shared-equity mortgages. We also derive closed-form expressions for writer-extendible options and discuss the writer's economic incentives for extending an out-of-the-money option. We apply these results to show that corporate debtholders have a strong incentive to extend the maturity of defaulting debt if there are liquidation costs. We model and solve the debtholders' optimal extension problem and show that the possibility of an extension can induce shareholders in highly levered firms to accept negative NPV projects.

High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes

Journal of Finance 1990 45(5), 1611-1626
On the trading day prior to holidays, stocks advance with disproportionate frequency and show high mean returns averaging nine to fourteen times the mean return for the remaining days of the year. Over one third of the total return accruing to the market portfolio over the 1963–1982 period was earned on the eight trading days which each year fall before holiday market closings. Examination of hourly pre‐holiday stock returns reveals high returns throughout the day. Pre‐holiday stock returns in the post‐test 1983–1986 period are also examined.

Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 1307-1314
Empirical evidence of time varying term premia in bond returns is frequently interpreted as evidence against the Expectations Hypothesis. This paper shows that the Expectations Hypothesis can actually imply time varying term premia if the time frame for which the Expectations Hypothesis holds differs from the return measurement period. Furthermore, many of the properties of these term premia are consistent with those of observed term premia. These results are important because they imply that the case against the Expectations Hypothesis is weaker than claimed in the empirical literature.

Pricing Options with Extendible Maturities: Analysis and Applications

Journal of Finance 1990 45(3), 935-957
Many common types of financial contracts incorporate options with extendible maturities. This paper derives closed‐form expressions for options that can be extended by the optionholder and presents a number of applications including the valuation of American options with stochastic dividends, junk bonds, and shared‐equity mortgages. We also derive closed‐form expressions for writer‐extendible options and discuss the writer's economic incentives for extending an out‐of‐the‐money option. We apply these results to show that corporate debtholders have a strong incentive to extend the maturity of defaulting debt if there are liquidation costs. We model and solve the debtholders' optimal extension problem and show that the possibility of an extension can induce shareholders in highly levered firms to accept negative NPV projects.

Time Varying Term Premia and Traditional Hypotheses About the Term Structure.

Journal of Finance 1990 45(4), 1307-14
Empirical evidence of time varying term premia in bond returns is frequently interpreted as evidence against the expectations hypothesis. This paper shows that the expectations hypothesis can actually imply time varying term premia if the time frame for which the expectations hypothesis holds differs from the return measurement period. Furthermore, many of the properties of these term premia are consistent with those of observed term premia. These results are important because they imply that the case against the expectations hypothesis is weaker than claimed in the empirical literature.

High Stock Returns Before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes.

Journal of Finance 1990 45(5), 1611-26
On the trading day prior to holidays, stocks advance with disproportionate frequency and show high mean returns averaging nine to fourteen times the mean return for the remaining days of the year. Over one third of the total return accruing to the market portfolio over the 1963-82 period was earned on the eight trading days that fall before holiday market closings each year. Examination of hourly preholiday stock returns reveals high returns throughout the day. Preholiday stock returns in the posttest 1983-86 period are also examined.