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ESG News, Future Cash Flows, and Firm Value

Journal of Finance 2025 80(6), 3499-3554
We investigate the expected consequences of negative environmental, social, and governance (ESG) news on firms' future profits. After learning about negative ESG news, analysts significantly downgrade their forecasts at short and longer horizons. Negative ESG news affects forecasts more strongly at longer horizons than other types of negative corporate news. The negative revisions of earnings forecasts following negative ESG news largely reflect expectations of lower future sales, rather than higher future costs. Quantitatively, forecast revisions can explain most of the negative impacts of ESG news on firm value. Analysts are correct to revise forecasts downward following negative ESG news

Green Window Dressing

Journal of Finance 2025 80(6), 3555-3588 open access
This paper establishes that mutual funds strategically time their trades in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) stocks around disclosure dates to inflate their sustainability ratings. This claim is supported by three empirical findings. First, we show that funds' ESG betas increase shortly before disclosure and decrease shortly afterwards. Second, we document that post‐disclosure fund returns are higher but have lower ESG exposure than disclosed portfolios. Third, we provide evidence that ESG stock prices temporarily rise before disclosure and decline afterwards. Overall, we establish that green window dressing positively impacts fund sustainability ratings, performance, and flows

Sustainability or Greenwashing: Evidence from the Asset Market for Industrial Pollution

Journal of Finance 2025 80(2), 699-754 open access
We study the asset market for pollutive plants. Firms divest pollutive plants in response to environmental pressures. Buyers are firms facing weaker environmental pressures that have supply chain relationships or joint ventures with the sellers. While pollution levels do not decline following divestitures, sellers highlight their sustainable policies in subsequent conference calls, earn higher returns as they sell more pollutive plants, and benefit from higher Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) ratings and lower compliance costs. Overall, the asset market allows firms to redraw their boundaries in a manner perceived as environmentally friendly without real consequences for pollution but with substantial gains from trade