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Real Stock Returns and Inflation

Journal of Finance 1984 39(2), 493-502
This paper develops the relation between the real rate of return on the stock market and changes in the price level using a multiperiod economy with production. The observed relation between real ex post stock returns and inflation is shown to be consistent with equilibrium in an economy with rational investors. The relation between expected real returns and expected inflation is shown to depend on the form of the economy's production function and on the form of investor preferences. When the production function exhibits stochastic constant returns to scale, the model explains the negative relation between expected real returns and expected inflation which has frequently been observed in empirical studies.

Some Results in the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing

Journal of Finance 1984 39(4), 1021-1039
This paper derives a stronger version of Huberman's recent “preference free” pricing theorem. This pricing result relates the expected return on an asset to its factor responses and the covariance structure of the residuals from a linear factor model. It must characterize any infinite asset economy in which no arbitrage opportunities are present whether or not the factor model has uncorrelated residuals. This result provides the intuition for the role of residual risk in the pricing model and eliminates some classes of arbitrage opportunities still present under Huberman's bound. Some applications to empirical tests and performance measurement are also discussed.

Real Stock Returns and Inflation

Journal of Finance 1984
This paper develops the relation between the real rate of return on the stock market and changes in the price level using a multiperiod economy with production. The observed relation between real ex post stock returns and inflation is shown to be consistent with equilibrium in an economy with rational investors. The relation between expected real returns and expected inflation is shown to depend on the form of the economy's production function and on the form of investor preferences. When the production function exhibits stochastic constant returns to scale, the model explains the negative relation between expected real returns and expected inflation which has frequently been observed in empirical studies.

The American Put Option Valued Analytically

Journal of Finance 1984 39(5), 1511-1524
An analytic solution to the American put problem is derived herein. The hedge ratio and other derivatives of the solution are presented. The formula derived implies an exact duplicating portfolio for the American put consisting of discount bonds and stock sold short. The formula is extended to consider put options on stocks paying cash dividends. A polynomial expression is developed for evaluating these formulae. Values and hedge ratios for puts on both dividend and nondividend paying stocks are calculated, tabulated, and compared with values derived by numerical integration and binomial approximation. As with European options, evaluating an analytic formula is more efficient than approximating the stock price process or the partial differential equation by binomial or finite difference methods. Finally, applications of this American put solution are discussed.