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Market Efficiency and the Favorite‐Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market

Journal of Finance 1994 49(1), 269-279
ABSTRACT This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak‐form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite‐longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.

Anatomy of a Merger: The Causes and Effects of Mergers and Acquisitions.

Journal of Finance 1994 49(5), 1932
Part 1 Why firms merge: recent history of M&A waves M&A personae creative financing - the new techniques corporate control and expansion via M taxation, deregulation and antitrust legislation merger waves - a cyclical dynamic approach. Part 2 Checklist review of the literature: a checklist of causes - why firms merge a checklist of effects - post-acquisition outcomes a checklist of success and failure factors.

Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market.

Journal of Finance 1994 49(1), 269-79
This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak-form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite-longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.

Consumption and Equilibrium Interest Rates in Stochastic Production Economies

Journal of Finance 1984 39(1), 77-92
In this paper, we analyze the behavior of equilibrium real interest rates in an identical consumer economy in which the preferences are represented by time additive logarithmic utility functions and production technologies are Cobb-Douglas with stochastic constant returns to scale. The following main results are established. (i) When there is no relative price uncertainty, it is shown that the equilibrium interest rate exhibits a mean reverting tendency. A nontrivial steady state distribution is found to exist for the equilibrium interest rate. The properties of the equilibrium interest rate are also derived and discussed. (ii) In a multigood economy, even with additive preferences across goods, the equilibrium interest rates depend explicitly on relative prices. The substitution possibilities in production technologies induce this result. This is in contrast to the findings of Richard and Sundaresan 11 who show that the analytical general equilibrium term structure of interest rates formula of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5 is unaffected by the introduction of relative price uncertainty when the technologies are linear and hence involve no substitution. Furthermore, we relate our results to those of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5, Breeden 3, and Richard and Sundaresan 11 with special emphasis on stochastic production and realtive price uncertainty.

Consumption and Equilibrium Interest Rates in Stochastic Production Economies

Journal of Finance 1984 39(1), 77
In this paper, we analyze the behavior of equilibrium real interest rates in an identical consumer economy in which the preferences are represented by time additive logarithmic utility functions and production technologies are Cobb-Douglas with stochastic constant returns to scale. The following main results are established. (i) When there is no relative price uncertainty, it is shown that the equilibrium interest rate exhibits a mean reverting tendency. A nontrivial steady state distribution is found to exist for the equilibrium interest rate. The properties of the equilibrium interest rate are also derived and discussed. (ii) In a multigood economy, even with additive preferences across goods, the equilibrium interest rates depend explicitly on relative prices. The substitution possibilities in production technologies induce this result. This is in contrast to the findings of Richard and Sundaresan 11 who show that the analytical general equilibrium term structure of interest rates formula of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5 is unaffected by the introduction of relative price uncertainty when the technologies are linear and hence involve no substitution. Furthermore, we relate our results to those of Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross 5, Breeden 3, and Richard and Sundaresan 11 with special emphasis on stochastic production and realtive price uncertainty.