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Diversification as a Public Good: Community Effects in Portfolio Choice

Journal of Finance 2004 59(4), 1677-1716
Within a rational general equilibrium model in which agents care only about personal consumption, we consider a setting in which, due to borrowing constraints, individuals endowed with local resources underparticipate in financial markets. As a result, investors compete for local resources through their portfolio choices. Even with complete financial markets and no aggregate risk, agents may herd into risky portfolios. This yields a Pareto‐dominated outcome as agents introduce “community” risk unrelated to fundamentals. Moreover, if some agents are behaviorally biased, or cannot completely diversify their holdings, rational agents may choose more extreme portfolios and amplify the effect.

News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns

Journal of Finance 2004 59(2), 755-793 open access
This paper models components of the return distribution, which are assumed to be directed by a latent news process. The conditional variance of returns is a combination of jumps and smoothly changing components. A heterogeneous Poisson process with a time‐varying conditional intensity parameter governs the likelihood of jumps. Unlike typical jump models with stochastic volatility, previous realizations of both jump and normal innovations can feed back asymmetrically into expected volatility. This model improves forecasts of volatility, particularly after large changes in stock returns. We provide empirical evidence of the impact and feedback effects of jump versus normal return innovations, leverage effects, and the time‐series dynamics of jump clustering.

Optimal Asset Location and Allocation with Taxable and Tax‐Deferred Investing

Journal of Finance 2004 59(3), 999-1037
We investigate optimal intertemporal asset allocation and location decisions for investors making taxable and tax‐deferred investments. We show a strong preference for holding taxable bonds in the tax‐deferred account and equity in the taxable account, reflecting the higher tax burden on taxable bonds relative to equity. For most investors, the optimal asset location policy is robust to the introduction of tax‐exempt bonds and liquidity shocks. Numerical results illustrate optimal portfolio decisions as a function of age and tax‐deferred wealth. Interestingly, the proportion of total wealth allocated to equity is inversely related to the fraction of total wealth in tax‐deferred accounts.

Analyzing the Analysts: When Do Recommendations Add Value?

Journal of Finance 2004 59(3), 1083-1124 open access
We show that analysts from sell‐side firms generally recommend “glamour” (i.e., positive momentum, high growth, high volume, and relatively expensive) stocks. Naïve adherence to these recommendations can be costly, because the level of the consensus recommendation adds value only among stocks with favorable quantitative characteristics (i.e., value stocks and positive momentum stocks). In fact, among stocks with unfavorable quantitative characteristics, higher consensus recommendations are associated with worse subsequent returns. In contrast, we find that the quarterly change in consensus recommendations is a robust return predictor that appears to contain information orthogonal to a large range of other predictive variables.

The Choice of Private Versus Public Capital Markets: Evidence from Privatizations

Journal of Finance 2004 59(6), 2835-2870
We examine the impact of political, institutional, and economic factors on the choice between selling a state‐owned enterprise in the public capital market through a share issue privatization (SIP) and selling it in the private capital market in an asset sale. SIPs are more likely in less developed capital markets, for more profitable state‐owned enterprises, and where there are more protections of minority shareholders. Asset sales are more likely when there is less state control of the economy and when the firm is smaller. Our results suggest the importance of privatization activities in developing the equity markets of privatizing countries.