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Corporate Financial Policy, Information, and Market Expectations: An Empirical Investigation of Dividends

Journal of Finance 1987 42(4), 889-911
This paper documents a relationship between announcements of unexpected changes in financial policy and unexpected changes in performance of the firm. Using a new methodology that combines analysis of stock price movements and earnings forecast data, the authors provide evidence that analysts revise their earnings forecasts following the announcement of an unexpected dividend change by an amount positively related to the size of the unexpected dividend change. They also provide evidence that these revisions are positively related to the change in equity value surrounding the announcement. Further, they find that these revisions are consistent with rationality. Their results therefore provide direct evidence consistent with the hypothesis that unexpected dividend changes signal information about firm performance to market participants.

Components of the Bid‐Ask Spread and the Statistical Properties of Transaction Prices

Journal of Finance 1987 42(5), 1293-1307
The bid‐ask spread can be decomposed into two parts: one part due to asymmetric information and the other part due to other factors such as monopoly power. The part due to asymmetric information attenuates statistical biases in mean return, variance, and serial covariance. Thus, using spread data to adjust for biases in return moments requires knowing not only the spread but the composition of the spread. Furthermore, any spread‐estimation procedure using transaction prices must estimate two spread components. On the other hand, the appropriateness of some previously suggested statistical corrections is independent of the spread composition.

Gains from International Diversification: 1968–85 Returns on Portfolios of Stocks and Bonds

Journal of Finance 1987 42(3), 721-739
This paper applies the multi‐period investment model to a universe of international securities on the basis of the simple probability assessment approach. Our principal findings are: 1) the gains from including non‐U.S. asset categories in the universe were remarkably large (in some cases statistically significant), especially for the highly risk‐averse strategies, 2) the gains from removing the no leverage constraint were more substantial than they were in the absence of non‐U.S. securities, and 3) there is strong evidence of market segmentation in that the optimal levels of investment in U.S. securities were mostly zero in the presence of the non‐U.S. asset categories.