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Information, Asset Prices, and the Volume of Trade

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1575-1590
ABSTRACT A dynamic equilibrium model is constructed in which agents with access to different information sets participate in the capital market. Agents must use the equilibrium price of capital to make optimal forecasts of the return to holding capital. Examples show that the volume of trade, as well as the price of capital, can be highly correlated with a measure of the information content of prices. This measure of information is the difference between the unconditional entropy of the dividend and the entropy of the dividend conditional on observing the price of capital.

Information, Asset Prices, and the Volume of Trade.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1575-90
A dynamic equilibrium model is constructed in which agents with access to different information sets participate in the capital market. Agents must use the equilibrium price of capital to make optimal forecasts of the return to holding capital. Examples show that the volume of trade, as well as the price of capital, can be highly correlated with a measure of the information content of prices. The measure of information is the difference between the unconditional entropy of the dividend and the entropy of the dividend conditional on observing the price of capital.

The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 733-52
This paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.

Why Hang on to Losers? Divestitures and Takeovers.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1401-23
The author studies the divestiture decisions of managers who care about their reputations. Managers' divestiture and investment decisions are publicly observable, but managers privately observe signals with respect to the future payoff distribution of investments they have initiated. He establishes that in equilibrium there is too little divestiture. These inefficiencies create the opportunity for wealth-enhancing divestiture-motivated takeovers. A key result is that only managers of targets with "middle of the road" asset specificity should consider the takeover threat credible. These findings suggest that uniqueness of assets is an important determinant of both agency costs and takeover activity. The author's analysis leads to several empirical predictions.

Liquidation Values and Debt Capacity: A Market Equilibrium Approach.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(4), 1343-66
The authors explore the determinants of liquidation values of assets, particularly focusing on the potential buyers of assets. When a firm in financial distress needs to sell assets, its industry peers are likely to be experiencing problems themselves, leading to asset sales at prices below value in best use. Such illiquidity makes assets cheap in bad times and so ex ante is a significant private cost of leverage. The authors use this focus on asset buyers to explain variation in debt capacity across industries and over the business cycle, as well as the rise in U.S. corporate leverage in the 1980s.

Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(1), 247-70
The authors develop a multiperiod auction model in which multiple privately informed agents strategically exploit their long-lived information. They show that such traders compete aggressively and cause most of their common private information to be revealed very rapidly. In the limit, as the interval between auctions approaches zero, market depth becomes infinite and all private information is revealed immediately. These results are in contrast to those of Albert S. Kyle (1985) in which the monopolistic informed trader causes his information to be incorporated into prices gradually and, when the interval between auctions is vanishingly small, market depth is constant over time.

The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices

Journal of Finance 1992 47(2), 733-752
ABSTRACT This paper examines daily excess bond returns associated with announcements of additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List, and to rating changes by Moody's and Standard and Poor's. Reliably nonzero average excess bond returns are observed for additions to Standard and Poor's Credit Watch List when an expectations model is used to classify additions as either expected or unexpected. Bond price effects are also observed for actual downgrade and upgrade announcements by rating agencies. Excluding announcements with concurrent disclosures weakens the results for downgrades, but not upgrades. The stock price effects of rating agency announcements are also examined and contrasted with the bond price effects.

Accounts Receivable Management Policy: Theory and Evidence.

Journal of Finance 1992 47(1), 169-200
This paper develops and tests hypotheses that explain the choice of accounts receivable management policies. The tests focus on both cross-sectional explanations of policy-choice determinants, as well as incentives to establish captives. The authors find size, concentration, and credit standing of the firm's traded debt and commercial paper are each important in explaining the use of factoring, accounts receivable secured debt, captive finance subsidiaries, and general corporate credit. They also offer evidence that captive formation allows more flexible financial contracting. However, the authors find no evidence that captive formation expropriates bondholder wealth.