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Trading patterns, bid-ask spreads, and estimated security returns

Journal of Financial Economics 1989 25(1), 75-97
Returns computed with closing bid or ask prices that may not represent ‘true’ prices introduce measurement error into portfolio returns if investor buying and selling display systematic patterns. This paper finds systematic tendencies for closing prices to be recorded at the bid in December and at the ask in early January. After changing bid and ask prices are controlled for. this pattern results in large portfolio returns on the two trading days surrounding the end of the year, especially for low-price stocks. Other temporal return patterns (e.g. weekend and holiday effects) are also related to systematic trading patterns.

Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 12(1), 13-32
This study examines, month-by-month, the empirical relation between abnormal returns and market value of NYSE and AMEX common stocks. Evidence is provided that daily abnormal return distributions in January have large means relative to the remaining eleven months, and that the relation between abnormal returns and size is always negative and more pronounced in January than in any other month — even in years when, on average, large firms earn larger risk-adjusted returns than small firms. In particular, nearly fifty percent of the average magnitude of the ‘size effect’ over the period 1963–1979 is due to January abnormal returns. Further, more than fifty percent of the January premium is attributable to large abnormal returns during the first week of trading in the year, particularly on the first trading day.

Motivating managers to make investment decisions

Journal of Financial Economics 1975 2(3), 273-292
Owners of capital frequently lack knowledge about investment opportunities. One alternative is to turn to a manager for assistance. The owner's problem of contracting for the services of a manager is treated as a problem in buying information. The surprising result is that it is sometimes possible to trade information even when the owner is unable to form his own assessment of the information's value. Under some conditions it is possible to write a managerial compensation contract which will induce the manager to act in the best interests of the owner. These conditions require owner knowledge of the manager's employment and investment alternatives and risk preferences as well as some, but not all, of the characteristics of the investment opportunities.

The information content of option prices and a test of market efficiency

Journal of Financial Economics 1978 6(2-3), 213-234
The Black-Scholes option pricing model, as generalized for dividend payments by Merton, is used to calculate implied variances of future stock returns. These variances are found to be better predictors of future stock return variances than those obtained from historic stock price data. A trading strategy is developed that exploits the informational content of the implied variances. The trading strategy, contrary to the efficient market hypothesis, produces abnormally high returns.

Information asymmetry and self-selection bias in bank loan announcement studies

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 101(3), 684-694
Event-study driven research has produced a consensus that loans are unique relative to other financial contracts. But these studies assume that small samples of loan announcements adequately represent the loan population. We find that loan announcements are rare and driven by factors such as information asymmetry and perceived materiality. We show that the sample used by Billett, Flannery, and Garfinkel (1995) fails to represent the loan universe and that significant abnormal announcement returns are confined to their smallest firms. Our sample, which better represents the loan population, produces an abnormal return insignificantly different from zero. The findings suggest that self-selection bias affects extant loan announcement research and do not support the views that loans are a special form of finance or that private and public debt differ in significant ways. Were all loans to be announced, the average abnormal return would likely be insignificant.

Regulation, competition, and abnormal returns in the market for failed thrifts

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 31(1), 107-131
This study investigates the returns to acquiring-firm stockholders in federally assisted mergers in the savings and loan industry. It is unique in that (a) these mergers are arranged and subsidized by government regulators and (b) they occur in a single industry, one plagued by well-publicized financial difficulties. The contribution of resources by the federal government creates the possibility of wealth transfers from the government to owners of the acquiring firms. We find, consistent with the oversubsidization hypothesis, that shareholders of acquiring firms earn significant positive returns.

The role of financial innovation in raising capital Evidence from deep discount debt offers

Journal of Financial Economics 1990 26(2), 289-298
We investigate the market's reaction to original-issue deep discount (OID) bonds, which are issued at prices well below par and with coupons set below the market rate. Until July 1982 OID debt offered large tax advantages. Before that date stock-price responses to announcements of OID debt are significantly positive, in contrast to the negative, albeit insignificant, responses associated with par debt announcements. No stock-price gains are observed for OID debt issued after the tax advantages are removed. We conclude that in 1981–82 opportunities provided by financial innovation offset the negative information effects typically associated with debt-financing announcements.

Equity valuation effects of forming master limited partnerships

Journal of Financial Economics 1989 24(1), 107-124
Equity valuation effects of decisions by corporations to shift assets to master limited partnerships (MLPs) are examined for the period 1982–1987. Positive average abnormal returns are found for (1) total conversions of corporations to MLPs (5.89%), (2) rollouts of subsets of assets by distribution of MLP equity claims to parent-firm shareholders (6.41%), and (3) rollouts of subsets of assets by public sale of MLP equity claims (2.41%). The positive effects are consistent with tax advantages, reduction in free cash flow, and information signaling. The positive effects for rollouts of subsets of assets are also consistent with reductions in information asymmetry and improvements in asset management.

Uncertainty about average profitability and the diversification discount

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 96(3), 463-484
The diversification discount (multiple segment firm value below the value imputed using single segment firm multiples) is commonly thought to be generated by agency problems, a lack of transparency, or lackluster future prospects for diversified firms. If multiple segment firms have lower uncertainty about mean profitability than single segment firms, rational learning about mean profitability provides an alternative explanation for the diversification discount that does not rely on suboptimal managerial decisions or a poor firm outlook. Empirical tests which examine changes in firm value across the business cycle and idiosyncratic volatility are consistent with lower uncertainty about mean profitability for multiple segment firms.

Passive investors, not passive owners

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 121(1), 111-141
Passive institutional investors are an increasingly important component of U.S. stock ownership. To examine whether and by which mechanisms passive investors influence firms' governance, we exploit variation in ownership by passive mutual funds associated with stock assignments to the Russell 1000 and 2000 indexes. Our findings suggest that passive mutual funds influence firms' governance choices, resulting in more independent directors, removal of takeover defenses, and more equal voting rights. Passive investors appear to exert influence through their large voting blocs, and consistent with the observed governance differences increasing firm value, passive ownership is associated with improvements in firms’ longer-term performance.