Knowledge that Transforms

Our simulation results show that tests for long-horizon (i.e.. multi-year) abnormal security returns around firm-specific events are severely misspecified. The rejection frequencies using parametric tests sometimes exceed 30% when the significance level of the test is 5%. Our results are robust to many different abnormal-return models. Conclusions from long-horizon studies require extreme caution. Nonparametric and bootstrap tests are likely to reduce misspecification.

Management compensation is often categorized as either sensitive or insensitive to firm performance. This one-dimensional treatment ignores the variation in the types and terms of compensation contracts. Through a cross-sectional examination of share-holder-authorized compensation arrangements, this paper demonstrates that the terms of stock option and restricted stock plans, and the flexibility afforded the board of directions in negotiating with managers, vary systematically with the characteristics of the assets being managed. This variation in compensation contracting challenges theorists to incorporate the richness of management contracts into models of incentive pay.

We analyze the effect of privatization on the performance of British Airways by examining the privatization's impact on airfares and competitors' stock prices. We find that stock prices of U.S. competitors fell a significant 7% upon British Airways' privatization, implying expectation of a more competitive British Airways. Closer rivals of British Airways experienced a greater drop in stock price than more distant rivals. Further, airfares in markets served by British Airways fell significantly upon privatization. The results suggest that a change from government to private ownership improves economic efficiency.

This paper examines 472 securities that were listed on Nasdaq and moved to the NYSE or Amex. When Nasdaq market makers avoid odd-eighth quotes, bid-ask spreads are large and decline dramatically with exchange listing. When market makers use both odd and even eighths, spreads are smaller and decline only slightly with exchange listing. The large spreads observed when Nasdaq market makers avoid odd-eighths cannot be explained by security-specific characteristics. Instead, the results support the conclusion that the avoidance of odd-eighth quotes is used as a coordination device among Nasdaq market makers to maintain supra-competitive bid-ask spreads.

This study explores multivariate methods for investment analysis based on return histories that differ in length across assets. The longer histories provide greater information about moments of return, not only for the longer-history assets, but for the shorter-history assets as well. To account for the remaining parameter uncertainty, or ‘estimation risk’, portfolio opportunities are characterized by a Bayesian predictive distribution. Examples involving emerging markets demonstrate the value of using the combined sample of histories and accounting for estimation risk, as compared to truncating the sample to produce equal-length histories or ignoring estimation risk by using maximum-likelihood estimates.

This special issue of the Journal of Financial Economics includes six articles that analyze the market microstructure of Nasdaq in various ways. The question of the costs of trading on Nasdaq has become contentious in both the academic and legal/regulatory arenas since the Christie and Schultz (1994) article first noted that many actively traded Nasdaq stocks were almost never quoted on odd eights. The articles in this symposium bring new and interesting insights to this debate.

Mutual funds are typically grouped by their investment objectives or the ‘style’ of their managers. We propose a new empirical to the determination of manager ‘style’. This approach is simple to apply, yet it captures nonlinear patterns of returns that result from virtually all active portfolio management styles. Our classifications are superior to common industry classifications in predicting cross-sectional future performance, as well as past performance, and they also outperform classifications based on risk measures and analogue portfolios. Interestingly, ‘growth’ funds typically break down into several categories that differ in composition and strategy.

This paper examines the magnitude and determinants of transactions costs for a sample of institutional traders with different investment styles. Using order-level data for recent equity transactions totaling $83 billion, we find that trading costs are economically significant and increase with trade difficulty. In addition, costs vary with traderspecific factors such as investment style and order submission strategy, as well as stock-specific factors such as exchange listing. We find evidence that institutional trades in exchange-listed stocks have lower costs than in comparable Nasdaq stocks.

This paper develops a model of the optimal investment strategy for a firm confronted with a sequence of technological innovations. We incorporate many of the most important characteristics of real-world technology markets. For example, we permit innovations to be stochastic in their arrival times and their profitability. We also incorporate learning so that firms adopting current innovations become better able to benefit from future innovations. The model yields four distinct investment strategies. The model is then used to predict actual firm policy. These implications are discussed and compared with observed firm behavior.

This paper examines the value effects of improvements in the trading mechanism. Selected stocks on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange were transferred gradually from a daily call auction to a mechanism where the call auction was followed by iterated continuous trading sessions. This event was associated with a positive and permanent price appreciation. The cumulative average market-adjusted return over a period that started five days prior to the announcement and ended 30 days after the stocks started trading by the new method was approximately 5.5%. In addition, we find positive liquidity externalities (spillovers) across related stocks, and improvements in the value discovery process due to the improved trading method. Finally, there was a positive association between liquidity gains and price appreciation.