Knowledge that Transforms

The sample of observed defaults significantly understates the average firm׳s true expected cost of default due to a sample selection bias. I use a dynamic capital structure model to estimate firm-specific expected default costs and quantify the selection bias. The average firm expects to lose 45% of firm value in default, a cost higher than existing estimates. However, the average cost among defaulted firms in the estimated model is only 25%, a value consistent with existing empirical estimates from observed defaults. This substantial selection bias helps to reconcile the levels of leverage and default costs observed in the data.

We examine institutional demand prior to well-known stock return anomalies and find that institutions have a strong tendency to buy stocks classified as overvalued (short leg of anomaly), and that these stocks have particularly negative ex post abnormal returns. Our results differ from numerous studies documenting a positive relation between institutional demand and future returns. We trace the difference to measurement horizon. We too find a positive relation at a quarterly horizon. However, the relation turns strongly negative at the one-year horizon used in anomaly studies. We consider several explanations for institutions’ tendency to trade contrary to anomaly prescriptions. Our evidence largely rules out explanations based on flow and limits-of-arbitrage, but is more consistent with agency-induced preferences for stock characteristics that relate to poor long-run performance.

The eurozone has a single short-term nominal interest rate, but monetary policy conditions measured by real short-term interest rates varied substantially across countries in the period 2003–2010. We use this cross-country variation in the (local) tightness of monetary policy to examine its influence on equity and money market flows. In line with a powerful risk-shifting channel, we find that fund investors in countries with decreased real interest rates shift their portfolio investment out of the money market and into the riskier equity market, causing significant equity price inflation in countries where investment home bias is the strongest.

We extend the theory of strategic trading around a predictable liquidation by considering the role of market resiliency. Our model predicts that even a monopolist strategic trader improves market quality and increases liquidator proceeds if trades’ temporary price impacts are quickly reversed, and that competition among strategic traders strictly improves market quality. We provide related empirical evidence by studying prices, liquidity, and individual account trading activity around the large and predictable “roll” trades undertaken by a large exchange-traded fund (ETF). The evidence indicates narrower bid-ask spreads, greater order book depth, and improved resiliency on roll dates. We find that a larger number of individual trading accounts provide liquidity on roll dates, and do not find evidence of the systematic use of predatory strategies. On balance, the theory and evidence imply that traders supply liquidity to rather than exploit predictable trades in resilient markets.

Nearly 40% of IPO firms redact information from their SEC registration filings. These firms exhibit characteristics consistent with the need to shield proprietary information from potential rivals. They experience greater underpricing, but pre-IPO insiders reduce underpricing-related wealth transfers by selling proportionately less of the firm's shares at the IPO, raising more equity financing in later seasoned equity offerings, and selling their own holdings at a relatively slow pace. The information environment of redacting firms reflects proportionately more private information than that of non-redacting firms post-IPO, but this difference abates by the fourth year. Consistent with the view that redacted proprietary information provides competitive advantages, redacting firms exhibit superior financial performance post-IPO. The results illustrate tradeoffs in balancing a firm's needs to protect proprietary information with its capital needs, investor needs for information to price securities, and pre-IPO owner liquidity needs.

This paper examines transaction costs and liquidity in the index CDS market by matching intraday quotes to real-time trade reports made available through the Dodd-Frank reforms. We find that the average relative effective spread is 0.27% of price level or 2.73% of CDS spread. Dodd-Frank does affect transaction costs and liquidity. Liquidity improves after the commencement of public dissemination of OTC derivatives trades. Moreover, cleared trades, trades executed on exchange-like venues, end-user trades, and bespoke trades exhibit lower trading costs, price impact, and price dispersion. These findings improve our understanding of the OTC derivatives market that is undergoing fundamental changes.

By providing liquidity to depositors and credit-line borrowers, banks can be exposed to double-runs on assets and liabilities. For identification, we exploit the 2007 freeze of the European interbank market and the Italian Credit Register. After the shock, there are sizeable, aggregate double-runs. In the cross-section, credit-line drawdowns are not larger for banks more exposed to the interbank market; however, they are larger when we condition on the same firms with multiple credit lines. We show that, ex-ante, more exposed banks actively manage their liquidity risk by granting fewer credit lines to firms that run more during crises.

This paper examines heterogeneity in the responsiveness to default options in a large state retirement plan, focusing on individuals’ decision-making approaches as well as their economic and demographic characteristics. Analyses of a survey of plan participants show that procrastination and the need for cognitive closure are important determinants of the likelihood of default. This paper also explores an important implication of defaulting—individuals who default are significantly more likely to subsequently express a desire to enroll in a different plan. The desire to change plans is also correlated with numerous economic and decision-making characteristics, including procrastination.

This article studies how systemic risk and financial market distress affect the distribution of shocks to real economic activity. We analyze how changes in 19 different measures of systemic risk skew the distribution of subsequent shocks to industrial production and other macroeconomic variables in the US and Europe over several decades. We also propose dimension reduction estimators for constructing systemic risk indexes from the cross section of measures and demonstrate their success in predicting future macroeconomic shocks out of sample.

Among high active share portfolios—whose holdings differ substantially from their benchmark—only those with patient investment strategies (with holding durations of over two years) on average outperform, over 2% per year. Funds trading frequently generally underperform, including those with high active share. Among patient funds, separating closet index from high active share funds matters, as low active share funds on average underperform even with patient strategies. Our results suggest that U.S. equity markets provide opportunities for longer-term active managers, perhaps because of the limited arbitrage capital devoted to patient and active investment strategies. The Online Appendix is available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2810798.