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Comments on Whaley's note

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(2), 213-215
Valuation by duplication is a useful conceptual technique but it does not yield unique formula. Many duplicating portfolios, some simpler than the three security portfolio in Roll and Whaley, exist for this problem. Valuing the actual single security will generally yield conceptually and computationally simpler solutions.

Valuation of risky assets in arbitrage-free economies with transactions costs

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(3), 271-280
This paper analyzes the equilibrium valuation of risky assets in the case where transactions costs are present. The methodology involves applying ‘theorems of the alternative’ (Farkas' Lemma) as a consequence of arbitrage-free markets. Under relevant assumptions, it is found that the price of an asset having transactions costs is the corresponding price that would obtain in a perfect market, plus a ‘fudge factor’. This latter factor is provided explicit bounds.

A model of international asset pricing

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(4), 383-406
In this paper an intertemporal model of international asset pricing is constructed which admits differences in consumption opportunity sets across countries. It is shown that the real expected excess return on a risky asset is proportional to the covariance of the return of that asset with changes in the world real consumption rate. (World real consumption does not, in general, correspond to a basket of commodities consumed by all investors.) The model has no barriers to international investment, but it is compatible with empirical facts which contradict the predictions of earlier models and which seem to imply that asset markets are internationally segmented.

The consumption based asset pricing model

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(1), 103-108
Breeden's demonstration that Merton's multi-beta capital asset pricing model can be collapsed into a single-beta model where betas are computed with respect to aggregate consumption is an important theoretical advance. Nonetheless, Breeden's model retains many of the empirical problems that beset Merton's earlier version. In general the consumption betas will be nonstationary, so that the state variables must be observable for the model to be estimated.

A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(4), 347-371
This paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices. We construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood, identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production. Using this model we find three main results. First, we find formulas for equilibrium forward, futures, discount bond, commodity bond and commodity option prices. Second, we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good; the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract. Third, we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices; these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges.

Forward contracts and futures contracts

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(4), 373-382
This paper provides a detailed discussion of the similarities and differences between forward contracts and futures contracts. Under frictionless markets and continuous trading, simple arbitrage arguments are invoked to value forward contracts, to relate forward prices and spot prices, and to relate forward prices and futures prices. We also argue that forward prices need not equal futures prices unless default free interest rates are deterministic.

Information aggregation in a noisy rational expectations economy

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(3), 221-235
This paper analyzes a general equilibrium model of a competitive security market in which traders possess independent pieces of information about the return of a risky asset. Each trader conditions his estimate of the return both on his own private source of information and price, which in equilibrium serves as a ‘noisy’ aggregator of the total information observed by all traders. A closed-form characterization of the rational expectations equilibrium is presented. A counter-example to the existence of ‘fully revealing’ equilibrium is developed.

Common stock repurchases and market signalling

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(2), 139-183
This paper examines the pricing behavior of securities of firms which repurchase their own shares. The results are consistent with a market in which investors price securities such that expected arbitrage profits are precluded. The results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms offer premia for their own shares mainly in order to signal positive information, and that the market uses the premium, the target fraction and the fraction of insider holdings as signals in order to price securities around the announcement date. The observation that repurchases via tender offer are followed by abnormal increases in earnings per share and that mainly small firms engage in repurchase tender offers, provides further support for the signalling hypothesis.

Option pricing in a lognormal securities market with discrete trading

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(1), 75-101
This paper derives a call option valuation equation assuming discrete trading in securities markets where the underlying asset and market returns are bivariate lognormally distributed and investors have increasing, concave utility functions exhibiting skewness preference. Since the valuation does not require the continouus time riskfree hedging of Black and Scholes, nor the discrete time riskfree hedging of Cox, Ross and Rubinstein, market effects are introduced into the option valuation relation. The new option valuation seems to correct for the systematic mispricing of well-in and well-out of the money options by the Black and Scholes option pricing formula.

The relation between forward prices and futures prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(4), 321-346
This paper consolidates the results of some recent work on the relation between forward prices and futures prices. It develops a number of propositions characterizing the two prices. These propositions contain several testable implications about the difference between forward and futures prices. Many of the propositions show that equilibrium forward and futures prices are equal to the values of particular assets, even though they are not in themselves asset prices. The paper then illustrates these results in the context of two valuation models and discusses the effects of taxes and other institutional factors.