Knowledge that Transforms

We examine analysts' earnings forecasts for a sample of takeover targets and document that the announcement-month forecasts are systematically revised upward, supporting the hypothesis that a takeover announcement conveys favorable information about the target firm. In addition, we find that abnormal forecast revisions of future stand-alone earnings are significantly greater for targets with low Tobin's q-ratios relative to targets with high q-ratios, lending further support to the information hypothesis. Finally, we provide evidence that managerial resistance to the takeover does not destroy value. Our results are in direct contrast to Pound (1988).

This paper studies the effects of transaction taxes on the behavior of Swedish equity returns during the 1980–1987 period. Sweden provides an excellent laboratory-style setting for such a study, as taxes were imposed for political purposes rather than to alter the behavior of the stock market. Volatility did not decline in response to the introduction of taxes although stock price levels and turnover did. Large proportions of trading activity migrated overseas to London when the tax rate was increased to 2% in 1986.

This paper analyzes bidding behavior in Mexican Treasury bill auctions for the period 1986–1991. The Mexican auction rules resemble those used in U.S. Treasury bill auctions closely. Results suggest the presence of collusion among large bidders throughout a large portion of the sampling period and the presence of information asymmetries between small and large bidders. Results also suggest that bidders account for the winner's curse and that participants bid more cautiously when uncertainty is high. Bidders' profits fell dramatically in 1990 when the Treasury substituted uniform for discriminatory pricing to combat collusion and to increase auction revenues.

Using quotations from two interest rate swap dealers with different credit ratings (AAA and A), we examine the effect of dealers' credit reputations on swap quotations and bid-offer spreads. The AAA offer rates are significantly higher than the A offer rates, and the AAA bid rates are significantly lower than the A bid rates. We also document the relation between swap rates and par bond yields estimated from London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) and bid rate (LIBID) data. We identify some of the problems in testing the implications of swap pricing theory.

This paper reconciles the relative pricing controversy between DeBondt and Thaler (1985, 1987), Chan (1988), and Ball and Kothari (1989). The negative autocorrelation in long-horizon index returns, along with the selection criterion of the contrarian strategy, can explain the positive covariance between time-varying betas and risk premiums. However, test-period beta estimates reflect the reversal of earnings expectations associated with underlying factors. The controversy thus reduces to the debate of Fama and French (1988) and Poterba and Summers (1988) over the source of the temporary price components in the market index. Rational changes in expected returns and cash flows explain most of the cross-sectional variation in returns.

This paper develops tests of inequality restrictions implied by conditional asset pricing models. The methodology is easy to implement, requires little knowledge of the conditional distribution of asset returns, and is valid under fairly weak assumptions. As an application, we test whether the ex ante risk premium is always positive. We report reliable evidence that the ex ante risk premium is negative in some states of the world; these states are related to periods of high expected inflation and especially to downward-sloping term structures.

Reinganum (1990) reports that small NYSE securities have average returns about 6% per year higher than those of similarly-sized NASDAQ securities during the 1973–1988 period. He attributes the return differential to market microstructure differences. In contrast, this paper demonstrates that differences in the characteristics of the companies listed on the two exchanges explain much of the disparity. About 60% of the return differential can be attributed to the poor performance of recent initial public offerings, which comprise a large portion of the firms on NASDAQ. On average, IPOs underperform during the six calendar years after going public.

This study examines price stabilization in new equity issues. Stabilizationtruncates the distribution of post-issue prices at a floor price, lowering the risk of adverse price moves and hence, in a competitive dealer market, reducing the bid-ask spread. Using 1.523 NASDAO-traded firm- commitment initial public offerings issued between 1982 and 1987, we find that spreads narrow when the market price is close to the offer price and stabilization is most likely. Moreover, significant negative returns are documented after the hypothesized termination of stabilizing activities, suggesting that stabilization, and its cessation, affect market prices.

Units are bundles of common stock and warrants. By selling initial public offerings (IPOs) of units, firms precommit to sell more stock in the future at the warrant's exercise price. Sequential offerings of this type reduce the agency costs of giving management a potential free cash flow at the IPO. Consistent with this theory, firms that choose unit IPOs are smaller, have less income and assets in relation to their IPO proceeds, and are less likely to survive than firms that issue shares.

The Myers and Majluf (1984) model predicts a nonpositive price reaction to an announcement of a new issue of equity. This paper shows that the Myers and Majluf result is a direct outcome of their assumption that all potential projects facing the firm have a nonnegative net present value. Refining the Myers and Majluf model, by allowing for the realistic possibility of potential projects having negative net present values, leads to different predictions. The refined model predicts positive as well as negative stock price responses, consistent with recent empirical evidence concerning the stock price effects of new stock issues.