Knowledge that Transforms

On average, significant positive abnormal returns are associated with Eurobond issues during the period 1975–1985. The cross-sectional and time-series distributions of the abnormal returns are consistent with the hypothesis that impediments to the adjustment of asset supplies to new demand conditions are large enough to create profitable financing opportunities for firms. Our analysis demonstrates how profitable financing opportunities can persist on the Eurobond market and when they are most likely to arise.

We use an asymptotic principal components technique to estimate the pervasive factors influencing asset returns and to test the restrictions imposed by static and intertemporal equilibrium versions of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) on a multivariate regression model. The empirical techniques allow for fairly arbitrary time variation in risk premiums. We find that the APT provides a better description of the expected returns on assets than the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). However, some statistically reliable mispricing of assets by the APT remains.

This paper introduces an event-study method that incorporates the possibility of a random event date. Consistent with empirical evidence, we assume an event may affect not only the conditional mean of a security's return, but also its conditional variance. We compare the statistical power and efficiency of our maximum-likelihood method with the standard application of traditional event-study methods to multiday security returns. Assuming a two-day event period, our empirical results provide evidence that the multiday approach is robust. We use our maximum-likelihood method to investigate the valuation effects of stock splits and stock dividends.

This paper provides tests of international equity market integration. The tests use a simple version of the consumption-based asset pricing model which predicts there is an asset pricing line for each country that relates a representative individual's expected real return on each asset to the covariance of this return with growth in the individual's real consumption. Using monthly data from January 1960 to December 1985, tests provide little evidence against the joint hypothesis that equity markets are integrated internationally and that the asset pricing model holds.

Firms that initiate dividend payments have positive earnings changes both before and after the dividend policy change, while those omitting dividend payments have negative earnings changes. Subsequent earnings changes are positively related to the dividend announcement return, and stock price reactions at subsequent earnings announcements are smaller than usual, suggesting that these earnings changes are partially anticipated at the dividend announcement. The results indicate that investors interpret announcements of dividend initiations and omissions as managers' forecasts of future earnings changes.

Term-structure models from Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) imply that conditional expected discrete-period returns on discount instruments are linear functions of forward rates. Tests reject a single-latent-variable model of expected returns on U.S. Treasury bills, but two or three latent variables appear to describe expected returns on bills of all maturities. Expected returns estimated using two-latent-variables exhibit variation with business cycles similar to what Fama (1986) observes for forward rates. Inverted term structures precede recessions and upward-sloping structures precede recoveries.

We examine stock-market volatility around the quarterly expirations of stock index futures contracts and nonquarterly expirations of stock index options, using estimates of the volatility implicit in the option prices. The option prices reflect increases in the volatility of the underlying stock indexes around both quarterly and nonquarterly expiration dates. Analysis of the residual returns on index options provides evidence consistent with an unexpected increase in market volatility around expiration dates.

Three problems may discourage the use of proxy contests to challenge management and transfer corporate control. First, inefficiency in the system of proxy vote solicitation can give management a vote-getting advantage. Second, due to conflict-of-interest pressures, institutional investors may vote with management against their own fiduciary interests. Third, because some dissident proxy challenges may be ‘crank’ bids, with no prospect for increasing share values, dissidents may have to incur costs to signal the value of their bid to outside shareholders. Tests on a sample of 100 proxy contests from the period 1981–1985 confirm the existence of these problems.

We report evidence on shareholder wealth effects of 94 firms recapitalizing with dual classes of common stock with disparate voting rights. We find significant, negative abnormal stock price returns at the announcement of the dual-class recapitalization. When we consider recapitalizations separately announced since the NYSE imposed a moratorium is June 1984 on the delisting of companies with dual classes of equity, we find significant, negative abnormal returns as compared with insignificant returns in the earlier period. Those firms recapitalizing from June 1986 through May 1987 experienced the most significant negative returns observed.

This paper presents evidence that stockholder wealth declines on average when managers respond to attempted hostile takeovers with defensive changes in asset and ownership structure. The data also indicate that these corporate restructurings are typically quite large and that many are attempts by managers to create barriers specific to the hostile bidder and /or to consolidate a block of voting securities in the hands of management allies. The evidence suggests that defensive motives (whether beneficial or harmful) influence corporate asset and ownership structure.