Knowledge that Transforms

This paper examines portfolio allocation across equity portfolios formed on the basis of characteristics like size and book-to-market. In particular, the paper assesses the impact of return predictability on portfolio choice for a multi-period investor with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 4. Compared to the investor's allocation in her last period, return predictability with dividend yield causes the investor early in life to tilt her risky-asset portfolio away from high book-to-market stocks and away from small stocks. These results are explained using Merton's (Econometrica 41 (1973) 867) characterization of portfolio allocation by a multi-period investor in a continuous time setting. Abnormal returns relative to the investor's optimal early life portfolio are also calculated. These abnormal returns are found to exhibit the same cross-sectional patterns as abnormal returns calculated relative to the market portfolio: higher for small rather than large firms, and higher for high rather than low book-to-market firms. Thus, hedging demand may be a partial explanation for the high expected returns documented for small firms and high book-to-market firms. However, even with this hedging demand, the investor wants to sell short the low book-to market portfolio to hold the high book-to-market portfolio. The utility costs of using a value-weighted equity index or of ignoring predictability are also calculated. An investor using a value-weighted equity index would give up a much larger fraction of her wealth to have access to book-to-market portfolio than size portfolios. Finally, an investor would give up a much larger fraction of her wealth to have access to dividend yield information than term spread information.

This paper investigates the effect of interest rate correlation in pricing and exercise of Bermudan swaptions. Investigating both Gaussian Markov models and Libor market models, we find that Bermudan swaption prices change only moderately (and in fact typically decrease slightly) when the number of factors in the underlying interest rate model is increased from one to two. We explain the rationale behind these results, and also demonstrate that exercise information generated within a best-fit one-factor model only leads to insignificant losses when properly applied in a two-factor model. Our results provide support for the standard Wall Street practice of using continuously re-calibrated one-factor models to price Bermudan swaptions, as long as calibration procedures are sufficiently comprehensive.

In 1993 and 1994, FreeportMcMoRan Copper and Gold issued two series of gold-denominated depositary shares to finance the expansion of its mining capacity in Indonesia. The pricing of these securities reflected their enhanced credit quality, which arose from the positive correlation between the value of the firm and the value of the securities. This feature of the securities effectively bundles a gold hedge with financing. A bundled hedge avoids wealth transfers to senior bondholders, since junior bondholders can effectively net their bond-related claims on the firm against their hedge-related liability to the firm. Such securities cannot be replicated by conventional hedging strategies, and they also mitigate the asset substitution problem.

We study the relation between market returns and aggregate flow into U.S. equity funds, using daily flow data. The concurrent daily relation is positive. Our tests show that this concurrent relation reflects flow and institutional trading affecting returns. This daily relation is similar in magnitude to the price impact reported for an individual institution's trades in a stock. Aggregate flow also follows market returns with a one-day lag. The lagged response of flow suggests either a common response of both returns and flow to new information, or positive feedback trading.

Recent bank mergers generally did not improve relative operating performance or produce positive abnormal returns to acquiring bank shareholders. We examine the relationship between mergers and CEO compensation during 1986–1995, a period marked by overcapacity and frequent mergers. We find that mergers have a net positive effect on compensation, mainly via the effect of size on compensation. Compensation generally increases even if mergers cause the acquiring bank's stock price to decline, as is typical after a merger announcement. The form of compensation affects merger decisions, since CEOs with more stock-based compensation were less likely to make an acquisition.

We examine the performance of 30 professional market timers during 1986–1994. Prior studies have analyzed implicit recommendations from mutual fund returns or explicit recommendations from newsletters. We analyze explicit recommendations executed in customer accounts. Using four tests, three benchmark portfolios, and daily data, we find significant unconditional and conditional ability that is robust with respect to transaction costs and survivorship bias. Relative ability persists and varies with the frequency of recommendation changes. When recommendations of successful timers are observed monthly instead of daily, significant ability generally disappears. Hence, the frequency with which recommendations are observed can change inferences regarding ability.

We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced (1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months, consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (NBER Working Paper, 1999), and (2) positive returns over the prior 36 months, which fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (Crises in Economic and Financial Structure. Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1982, pp. 295–315) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.

The paper develops the net proceeds maximization theory explaining how the spread and offering price are determined in all underwritten offerings in the U.S. The theory yields solutions for the optimal spread and offering price for all underwritten securities and it yields comparative statics that explain the cross-sectional variation in actual spreads and initial returns across different types of underwritten securities. The theory also suggests two alternative explanations to the ones offered by Chen and Ritter (J. Finance 55 (2000) 1105) for the clustering of unseasoned equity offerings spreads at 7%.

The proportion of firms paying cash dividends falls from 66.5% in 1978 to 20.8% in 1999, due in part to the changing characteristics of publicly traded firms. Fed by new listings, the population of publicly traded firms tilts increasingly toward small firms with low profitability and strong growth opportunities – characteristics typical of firms that have never paid dividends. More interesting, we also show that regardless of their characteristics, firms have become less likely to pay dividends. This lower propensity to pay is at least as important as changing characteristics in the declining incidence of dividend-paying firms.

We analyze the duration of bank relationships using a unique panel data set of listed firms and their banks from the bank-dominated Norwegian market. We find that firms are more likely to leave a bank as the relationship matures. Small, profitable, and highly leveraged firms maintain shorter bank relationships, as do firms with multiple bank relationships. These findings are robust to censoring, alternate specifications for the distribution of relationship duration, and other control variables relevant to the Norwegian market. Overall, our results cast doubt on theories suggesting that firms become locked into bank relationships.