Knowledge that Transforms

Fama's evidence that the term premium on Treasury securities is not monotonically increasing is found to depend entirely on the behavior of bid-asked mean returns on 9- and 10-month bills, and only during the subperiod 8/64–12/72. When transactions costs, as reflected in the bid-asked spread, are taken into account, there is found to be no way to exploit this non-monotonicity. The anomalous behavior of the quotations is attributed to the Treasury's auctions of 9-month bills during the period 9/66–10/72. The hypothesis that the term premium is a monotonically increasing function of maturity remains unrefuted.

This paper examines possible motives for and consequences of voluntary corporate liquidations. Specifically, the procedural and tax differences between voluntary liquidations and other control-changing transaction devices are analyzed. An empirical investigation of successful liquidations shows that the announcement of liquidation reduces the risk of liquidating shares, that the shareholders receive substantial gains from successful liquidations, and that the average gains to the acquiring shareholders are not significantly different from zero. These findings suggest that the liquidating firms' assets have been underutilized before liquidation and that voluntary liquidations lead to higher-valued reallocations of corporate resources.

Over the past 55 years returns on stock market indexes have on average been higher during the first half-month of calendar quarters 2 through 4 than at other times. Coincidentally, aggregate corporate earnings news arriving at the market during these half-month periods tends to be good, whereas earnings reports arriving later are more likely to convey bad news. In addition firms tend to publish bad-news earnings reports on Mondays, coincident with negative Monday effects in stock returns. The coincidence of earnings news arrival and market seasonalities leads to conjectures about informational reasons for observed seasonalities.

This paper examines the relation between stock returns and stock market volatility. We find evidence that the expected market risk premium (the expected return on a stock portfolio minus the Treasury bill yield) is positively related to the predictable volatility of stock returns. There is also evidence that unexpected stock market returns are negatively related to the unexpected change in the volatility of stock returns. This negative relation provides indirect evidence of a positive relation between expected risk premiums and volatility.

This paper investigates the effect of trade size on security prices. We show that trade size introduces an adverse selection problem into security trading because, given that they wish to trade, informed traders perfer to trade larger amounts at any given price. As a result, market makers' pricing strategies must also depend on trade size, with large trades being made at less favorable prices. Our model provides one explanation for the price effect of block trades and demonstrates that both the size and the sequence of trades matter in determining the price-trade size relationship.

This paper presents evidence regarding the two quantifiable components of the costs of going public: direct expenses and underpricing. Together, these costs average 21.22% of the realized market value of the securities issued for firm commitment offers and 31.87% for best efforts offers. For a given size offer, the direct expenses are of the same order of magnitude for both contract types, but the underpricing is greater for best efforts offers. An explanation of why some firms choose to use best efforts offers in spite of their apparent higher total costs is given.

Abnormal returns earned by target firms at the time of initial acquisition announcements are related to form of payment, degree of resistance, and type of offer. Results indicate that interdependence among these characteristics is important. Previous research suggests that tender-offer targets earn higher abnormal returns than merger targets. After controlling for payment method and degree of resistance, however, the difference in abnormal returns between tender offers and mergers is insignificant. Resisted offers are associated with insignificantly higher returns than unresisted offers. Abnormal returns associated with cash offers are significantly higher than those associated with stock offers.

In order for security prices to be informationally efficient, incentives must exist for traders to engage in costly information acquisition. This paper provides empirical evidence on this proposition. We observe that risk arbitrageurs (i.e., market participants who trade in securities of firms that are involved in mergers, tender offers, and voluntary liquidations) are able to generate private information regarding the success or failure of corporate reorganizations. Moreover, risk arbitrageurs earn substantial returns on their trading activities. These results suggest that security prices are sufficiently noisy to create incentives for costly information acquisition.

This paper presents evidence that banks provide some special service with their lending activity that is not available from other lenders. I find evidence that bank borrowers, not CD holders, bear the cost of reserve requirements on CDs. In addition, I find a positive stock price response to the announcement of new bank credit agreements that is larger than the stock price response associated with announcements of private placements or public straight debt offerings. Finally, I find significantly negative returns for announcements of private placements and straight debt issues used to repay bank loans.

Announcements of new equity issues have been seen to have a negative effect on stock prices. Potential explanations of this negative effect - the price-pressure, wealth-redistribution, and information-release hypotheses - imply different bond-price reactions to the announcements. By investigating bond-price behavior around the announcement of new equity issues this paper distinguishes the relative importance of these hypotheses. The evidence presented of a significant drop in bond prices is consistent with the information-release hypotheses.