Knowledge that Transforms

The Morning Call and Midday Call segments on CNBC TV provide a unique opportunity to study the efficient market hypothesis. The segments report analysts’ views about individual stocks and are broadcast when the market is open. We find that prices respond to reports within seconds of initial mention, with positive reports fully incorporated within one minute. Trading intensity doubles in the first minute, with a significant increase in buyer- (seller-) initiated trades after positive (negative) reports. Traders who execute within 15 seconds of the initial mention make small but significant profits by trading on positive reports during the Midday Call.

We investigate whether firms’ access to external financing to fund growth differs in market-based and bank-based financial systems. Using firm-level data for 40 countries, we compute the proportion of firms in each country relying on external finance and examine how that proportion differs across financial systems. We find that the development of a country's legal system predicts access to external finance, and stock markets and the banking system affect access to external finance differently. However, we find no evidence that firms’ access to external financing is predicted by several proxies for relative development of stock markets to the development of the banking system.

We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on return predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The analysis reveals in-sample and out-of-sample predictability, and shows that the out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is superior to that of model selection criteria. We find that term and market premia are robust predictors. Moreover, small-cap value stocks appear more predictable than large-cap growth stocks. We also investigate the implications of model uncertainty from investment management perspectives. We show that model uncertainty is more important than estimation risk, and investors who discard model uncertainty face large utility losses.

We examine a sample of firms that adopt “target ownership plans”, under which managers are required to own a minimum amount of stock. We find that prior to plan adoption, such firms exhibit low managerial equity ownership and low stock price performance. Managerial equity ownership increases significantly in the two years following plan adoption. We also observe that excess accounting returns and stock returns are higher after the plan is adopted. Thus, for our sample of firms, the required increases in the level of managerial equity ownership result in improvements in firm performance.

With a year of equity loans by a major lender, we measure the effect of actual short-selling costs and constraints on trading strategies that involve short-selling. We find the loans of initial public offering (IPOs), DotCom, large-cap, growth and low-momentum stocks to be cheap relative to the strategies’ documented profits and that investors who can short only stocks that are cheap and easy to borrow can enjoy at least some of the profits of unconstrained investors. Most IPOs are loaned on their first settlement days and throughout their first months, and the underperformance around lockup expiration is significant even for the IPOs that are cheap and easy to borrow. The effect of short-selling frictions appears strongest in merger arbitrage. Acquirers’ stock is expensive to borrow, especially when the acquirer is small, though the major influence on trading profits is not through expense but availability.

We examine the book-building method for marketing IPOs. In our model, the underwriter selects a group of investors along with a pricing and allocation mechanism to maximize (at minimum cost) the information generated during the process of going public. We also address the moral hazard problem faced by investors when evaluation is costly. When there is little need for accurate pricing, the expected gain from underpricing exactly offsets the investors’ costs of acquiring information. When pricing accuracy is important, however, the number of investors participating in the offering is larger, underpricing is greater, and investors can earn economic rents.

We construct optimal portfolios of equity funds by combining historical returns on funds and passive indexes with prior views about asset pricing and skill. By including both benchmark and nonbenchmark indexes, we distinguish pricing-model inaccuracy from managerial skill. Modest confidence in a pricing model helps construct portfolios with high Sharpe ratios. Investing in active mutual funds can be optimal even for investors who believe managers cannot outperform passive indexes. Optimal portfolios exclude hot-hand funds even for investors who believe momentum is priced. Our large universe of funds offers no close substitutes for the Fama-French and momentum benchmarks.

We investigate the option to invest in derivative securities using a large sample of mutual funds. We find that those funds with the greatest transaction-cost benefit tend to permit investment in derivatives, and that funds tend to permit investment only in those derivatives that offer transaction-cost benefits. Our results indicate that a fund's decision to permit investment in derivatives is driven by increased efficiency rather than advisor opportunism.

To short a stock, an arbitrageur must first borrow it. This paper describes the market for borrowing and lending U.S. equities, emphasizing the conditions generating and sustaining short-sale constraints. A large institutional lending intermediary provided eighteen months (4/2000–9/2001) of data on loan supply (“shortability”), loan fees (“specialness”), and loan recalls. The data suggest that while loan market specials and recalls are rare on average, the incidence of these short-sale constraints is increasing in the divergence of opinion among investors. Beyond some threshold, investor optimism itself can limit arbitrage via the loan market mechanism.

Are market-based or bank-based financial systems better at financing the expansion of industries that depend heavily on external finance, facilitating the formation of new establishments, and improving the efficiency of capital allocation across industries? We find evidence for neither the market-based nor the bank-based hypothesis. While legal system efficiency and overall financial development boost industry growth, new establishment formation, and efficient capital allocation, having a bank-based or market-based system per se does not seem to matter much.