Knowledge that Transforms

We use the 2007 asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) crisis as a laboratory to study the determinants of debt runs. Our model features dilution risk: maturing short-term lenders demand higher yields in compensation for being diluted by future lenders, making runs more likely. The model explains the observed tenfold increase in yield spreads leading to runs and the positive relation between yield spreads and future runs. Results from structural estimation show that runs are very sensitive to leverage, asset values, and asset liquidity, but less sensitive to the degree of maturity mismatch, the strength of guarantees, and asset volatility.

We evaluate the performance of limited partners׳ (LPs׳) private equity investments over time. Using a sample of 14,380 investments by 1,852 LPs in 1,250 buyout and venture capital funds started between 1991 and 2006, we find that the superior performance of endowment investors in the 1991–1998 period, documented by prior literature, is mostly due to their greater access to the top-performing venture capital partnerships. In the subsequent 1999–2006 period, endowments no longer outperform, no longer have greater access to funds that are likely to restrict access, and do not make better investment selections than other types of institutional investors. Nevertheless, all investor types׳ private equity investments continue to outperform public markets on average. We discuss how these results are consistent with the general maturing of the industry, as private equity has transitioned from a niche, poorly understood area to a ubiquitous part of institutional investors׳ portfolios.

Exceptional accuracy and speed for option pricing are available via quadrature (Andricopoulos, Widdicks, Duck, and Newton, 2003), extending into multiple dimensions with complex path-dependency and early exercise (Andricopoulos, Widdicks, Newton, and Duck, 2007). However, the exposition is incomplete, leaving many modelling processes outside the Black-Scholes-Merton framework unattainable. We show how to remove the remaining major block to universal application. Although this had appeared highly problematic, the solution turns out to be conceptually simple and implementation is straightforward (we provide code on the Journal of Financial Economics website at http://jfe.rochester.edu). Crucially, the method retains its speed and flexibility across complex combinations of option features but is now applicable across other underlying processes.

We study price pressures, i.e., deviations from the efficient price due to risk-averse intermediaries supplying liquidity to asynchronously arriving investors. Empirically, New York Stock Exchange intermediary data reveals economically large price pressures, 0.49% on average with a half life of 0.92 days. Theoretically, a simple dynamic inventory model captures an intermediary׳s use of price pressure to mean-revert inventory. She trades off revenue loss due to price pressure against price risk associated with staying in a nonzero inventory state. The closed-form solution identifies the intermediary׳s risk aversion and the investors׳ private value distribution from the observed time series patterns of prices and inventories. These parameters imply a relative social cost due to price pressure, a deviation from constrained Pareto efficiency, of approximately 10% of the cost of immediacy.

Value stocks covary with aggregate consumption more than growth stocks during periods when financial wealth is low relative to consumption. However, the conditional value premium does not exhibit such countercyclical behavior. Consequently, a one-factor conditional consumption-based asset pricing model can be rejected without making any arbitrary assumptions on the dynamics of the price of risk or the conditional moments. Empirical evidence is somewhat more consistent with a consumption-based model augmented with an aggregate wealth growth factor, which can be motivated by either recursive preferences or relative wealth concerns.

Using index options and returns from 1996 to 2009, I estimate discrete-time models where asset returns follow a Brownian increment and a Lévy jump. Time variations in these models are generated with an affine GARCH, which facilitates the empirical implementation. I find that the risk premium implied by infinite-activity jumps contributes to more than half of the total equity premium and dominates that of the Brownian increments suggesting that it is more representative of the risks present in the economy. Overall, my findings suggest that infinite-activity jumps, instead of the Brownian increments, should be the default modeling choice in asset pricing models.

Skilled investors make money off uninformed investors. By acting as intermediaries, they provide a hedge to the uninformed investors themselves. I present a model in which households have imperfect information about expected returns. Non-traded income shocks lead them to rebalance, sometimes at the wrong time. Active funds hedge this risk by trading on superior information. In equilibrium, they pay off when non-traded income disappoints, earning a premium that makes them appear to underperform index funds after fees. Empirical results using aggregate fund flows support the model. A corresponding asset pricing test can account for the apparent underperformance of active funds.

After executing option orders, options market makers turn to the stock market to hedge away the underlying stock exposure. As a result, the stock exposure imbalance in option transactions translates into an imbalance in stock transactions. This paper decomposes the total stock order imbalance into an imbalance induced by option transactions and an imbalance independent of options. The analysis shows that the option-induced imbalance significantly predicts future stock returns in the cross section controlling for the past stock and options returns, but the imbalance independent of options has only a transitory price impact. Further investigation suggests that options order flow contains important information about the underlying stock value.

We examine recovery rates of defaulted bonds in the US corporate bond market, based on a complete set of traded prices and volumes. A study of the trading microstructure around various types of default events is provided. We document temporary price pressure with high trading volumes on the default day and the following 30 days, and low trading activity thereafter. Based on this analysis, we determine market-based recovery rates and quantify various liquidity measures. We study the relation between the recovery rates and these measures, considering additionally a comprehensive set of bond characteristics, firm fundamentals, and macroeconomic variables.

Using a large sample of private debt renegotiations from 1996 to 2011, we report that, even in the absence of any covenant violation, debt covenants are frequently renegotiated. These renegotiations primarily relax existing restrictions and result in economically large changes in existing limits. Renegotiations of specific covenants are a response to both the distance the covenant variable is from its contractual limit and the firm׳s specific operating conditions and prospects. Moreover, the borrower׳s post-renegotiation investment and financial policies are strongly associated with the covenant changes resulting from the renegotiation. Overall, the findings imply that, even outside of default states, creditors have strong control rights over the borrower׳s operating and financial policies, and they exercise these rights in a state contingent manner through covenant renegotiations.