Knowledge that Transforms

The purpose of this paper is to bridge two strands of the literature, one pertaining to the objective or physical measure used to model an underlying asset and the other pertaining to the risk-neutral measure used to price derivatives. We propose a generic procedure using simultaneously the fundamental price, St, and a set of option contracts [(σitI)i=1,m] where m⩾1 and σitI is the Black–Scholes implied volatility. We use Heston's (1993. Review of Financial Studies 6, 327–343) model as an example, and appraise univariate and multivariate estimation of the model in terms of pricing and hedging performance. Our results, based on the S&P 500 index contract, show dominance of univariate approach, which relies solely on options data. A by-product of this finding is that we uncover a remarkably simple volatility extraction filter based on a polynomial lag structure of implied volatilities. The bivariate approach, involving both the fundamental security and an option contract, appears useful when the information from the cash market reflected in the conditional kurtosis provides support to price long term.

The “Asian Crisis” of 1997–98 affected all the “emerging markets” open to capital flows. Measures of corporate governance, particularly the effectiveness of protection for minority shareholders, explain the extent of exchange rate depreciation and stock market decline better than do standard macroeconomic measures. A possible explanation is that in countries with weak corporate governance, worse economic prospects result in more expropriation by managers and thus a larger fall in asset prices.

In this paper, I develop a theory of bid–ask quotes provided by foreign exchange dealers in the inter-bank market based on their beliefs and their inventory positions. I then build an agent-based model of the inter-dealer market where dealers learn in a Bayesian manner from quotes from other dealers. Using simulations, I find that the resulting intra-day spreads and between-quote returns largely conform to the empirically observed intra-day U-shaped pattern – a feature that has not been satisfactorily explained in the literature. I also study the factors that determine this U-shape.

This paper documents that (1) special dividends were once commonly paid by NYSE firms, but are now rarely paid; (2) firms typically paid specials almost as predictably as they paid regular dividends; (3) despite the dramatic overall decline in specials, the incidence of very large specials increased in recent years; and (4) special dividends were not displaced by stock repurchases. Most plausibly, small specials disappeared because their predictability made them close substitutes for regular dividend signals, while large specials survived because their sheer size automatically differentiates them from regulars.

Empirical researchers have frequently rejected the expectations hypothesis. The expectations hypothesis, however, has seldom, if ever, been tested at the extreme short end of the term structure where maturities are measured in days or weeks. Using overnight, weekly, and monthly repo rates, I find that term rates are almost unbiased estimates of the average overnight rate. This evidence provides new support for the expectations hypothesis.

Stock prices move together more in poor economies than in rich economies. This finding is not due to market size and is only partially explained by higher fundamentals correlation in low-income economies. However, measures of property rights do explain this difference. The systematic component of returns variation is large in emerging markets, and appears unrelated to fundamentals co-movement, consistent with noise trader risk. Among developed economy stock markets, higher firm-specific returns variation is associated with stronger public investor property rights. We propose that strong property rights promote informed arbitrage, which capitalizes detailed firm-specific information.

We correct the analysis of the model of time to build in Majd and Pindyck (1987 Journal of Financial Economics 18, 7–27) for the omission of an essential optimality condition. Our analysis reveals an additional insight: long times to build reduce the effects of increased project value volatility (i.e., higher investment thresholds) in comparison to standard real option models of investment under uncertainty, where investment is instantaneous. Thus, a ‘naı̈ve’ NPV rule can sometimes be an appropriate initial guide to investment.

Using data from Finland, this study analyzes the extent to which past returns determine the propensity to buy and sell. It also analyzes whether these differences in past-return-based behavior and differences in investor sophistication drive the performance of various investor types. We find that foreign investors tend to be momentum investors, buying past winning stocks and selling past losers. Domestic investors, particularly households, tend to be contrarians. The distinctions in behavior are consistent across a variety of past-return intervals. The portfolios of foreign investors seem to outperform the portfolios of households, even after controlling for behavior differences.

We examine the value and incentive effects of six nontraditional executive stock options: premium options, performance-vested options, repriceable options, purchased options, reload options, and indexed options. With reasonable parameter values, four options have lower value than a traditional option when granted, and large differences in value are evident across the types. Holding option value constant, five options create stronger incentives than traditional options to increase stock price, five create stronger incentives to increase risk, and three create stronger incentives to reduce dividend yield. Changing various option-specific parameters can produce large changes in incentive strengths.

The ‘new issues puzzle’ is that stocks of common stock issuers subsequently underperform nonissuers matched on size and book-to-market ratio. With 7000+ seasoned equity and debt issues, we document that issuer underperformance reflects lower systematic risk exposure for issuing firms relative to the matches. A consistent explanation is that, as equity issuers lower leverage, their exposures to unexpected inflation and default risks decrease, thus decreasing their stocks’ expected returns relative to matched firms. Equity issues also significantly increase stock liquidity (turnover), again lowering expected returns relative to nonissuers. We conclude that the ‘new issue puzzle’ is explained by a failure of the matched-firm technique to provide a proper control for risk. This conclusion is robust to issue characteristics and the choice of factor model framework.