Knowledge that Transforms

Recent evidence indicates the value premium declined over time. We argue this decline happened because book equity, BE, is no longer a good proxy for fundamental equity, FE, defined as the present value of cash flows under a common discount rate across firms. Specifically, we estimate FE for public US firms over time and find that the premium associated with the fundamental-to-market ratio, FE/ME, subsumes the BE/ME premium and has been relatively stable while the cross-sectional correlation between FE/ME and BE/ME decreased over time, inducing an apparent decline in the value premium. We also show that FE/ME captures the value premium better than several alternative value signals beyond BE/ME.

We study optimal securitization in the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market. Many MBS are traded in the liquid to-be-announced (TBA) market, which however induces adverse selection due to cheapest-to-deliver pricing . We find that lenders pool high-value loans separately and trade them in a less liquid market. We estimate a model of MBS pooling and trading to study welfare implications of pooling policies. TBA market structure produces a trade-off between efficiency and equity; broader pooling increases liquidity and average welfare, but results in a larger cross-subsidy from smaller loans to larger loans. Minimizing costs or limiting strategic pooling results in a more regressive redistribution.

Using rich plant-level data, we analyze the relative performance of firms with inside and outside CEOs. We show that firms with outside CEOs achieve greater productivity improvements compared to firms with inside CEOs. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the relation is stronger in well-performing, rather than poorly performing, firms. Although part of the productivity growth differential comes from divesting low-performing, peripheral, low-tech, and unionized plants, most productivity improvements arise from streamlining continuing plants. Here, productivity is increased by consolidating products, changing the composition of investments toward newer capital, shifting to more capital-intensive production, adopting structured management practices, and improving labor productivity.

Our paper relies on stock price reactions to colour words, in order to provide new dictionaries of positive and negative words in a finance context. We extend the machine learning algorithm of Taddy (2013), adding a cross-validation layer to avoid over-fitting. In head-to-head comparisons, our dictionaries outperform the standard bag-of-words approach (Loughran and McDonald, 2011) when predicting stock price movements out-of-sample. By comparing their composition, word-by-word, our method refines and expands the sentiment dictionaries in the literature. The breadth of our dictionaries and their ability to disambiguate words using bigrams both help to colour finance discourse better.

We investigate how the dynamics of corporate debt policy affect the pricing of corporate bonds. We find empirically that debt issuance has a significant stochastic component that is imperfectly correlated with shocks to asset value. As a consequence, the volatility of leverage is significantly higher than asset volatility over short horizons. At long horizons, the relation between leverage and asset volatility is reversed due to mean reversion in leverage. We incorporate these stochastic debt dynamics into structural models of credit risk, both standard diffusion models as well as newer models with stochastic volatility and jumps. Including stochastic debt gives more accurate predictions of credit spreads in both the cross-section and the time series.

We study optimal government support following a rare disaster that creates heterogeneous firm liquidity needs. Firms’ increase in debt reduces their output due to moral hazard. Banks are subject to a minimum capital requirement that limits deposit insurance costs upon bad aggregate shocks. Without government support, firms’ moral hazard and banks’ funding frictions reinforce each other amplifying output losses. Optimal support is implemented with firm-specific transfers combined with the provision of aggregate risk insurance through a capital requirement relaxation and a public preferred equity stake in banks. Our results shed light on suboptimality features in the actual policy responses to Covid-19 lockdowns.

Does investors’ political ideology shape international capital allocation? We provide evidence from two settings—syndicated corporate loans and equity mutual funds—to show ideological alignment with foreign governments affects the cross-border capital allocation by U.S. institutional investors. Ideological alignment on both economic and social issues plays a role. Our empirical strategy ensures direct economic effects of foreign elections or government ties between countries are not driving the result. Ideological distance between countries also explains variation in bilateral investment. Combined, our findings imply ideological alignment is an important, omitted factor in models of international capital allocation.

We study the effect of judicial bias favoring firm continuation in bankruptcy on the labor market outcomes of employees by exploiting the random assignment of cases across courts in the State of São Paulo in Brazil. Employees of firms assigned to courts that favor firm continuation are more likely to stay with their employer, but they earn, on average, lower wages three to five years after bankruptcy . We discuss several potential mechanisms that can rationalize this result, and provide evidence that imperfect information about outside options in the local labor market and adjustment costs associated with job change play an important role.

We analyze competition and risk management at central counterparties (CCPs) using a granular transaction-level dataset, and find that CCPs decrease collateral in response to lower collateral at their competitors, an effect that becomes stronger as the correlation between positions increases. To interpret our findings, we derive a model in which collateral is driven by risk and CCP competition. Our results are consistent with the model and suggest that a single monopolistic CCP would require more collateral. We also show that amid the substantial increase in collateral during the Covid-19 pandemic, the probability of a margin breach did not significantly change.

Retirement savings abandonment is a rising concern connected to defined contribution systems and default enrollment. We use tax data on Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs) to establish that for a recent cohort, 0.4% of retirement-age individuals abandoned an aggregate of $66 million, proxied by a failure to claim over ten years after a legal requirement to do so. Analysis of state unclaimed property databases suggests that workplace defined contribution plans are abandoned at a higher rate than IRAs. Finally, regression discontinuity estimates show that certain accounts created by default enrollment are at higher risk of abandonment by passive savers.