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Shareholder wealth, information signaling and the specially designated dividend

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 12(2), 187-209
This paper examines common stock returns and dividend and earnings patterns surrounding specially designated dividends labeled by management as ‘extra’, ‘special’ or ‘year-end’ and compares them to those surrounding regular (unlabeled) dividend increases. The results support the notion that management uses the labeling of dividend increases to convey information to the market about the future potential of the firm. Unlabeled increases appear to contain the most positive information. Contrary to the sometimes suggested view, specially designated dividends appear to convey positive information about future dividends and earnings beyond that relating to the current period.

Friction in the trading process and the estimation of systematic risk

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 12(2), 263-278
This paper considers how estimates of the market model beta parameter can be biased by friction in the trading process (information, decision, and transaction costs) that (a) leads to a distinction between observed and ‘true’ returns; (b) causes observed returns to be generated asynchronously for a set of interdependent securities; and (c) thereby introduces serial cross-correlation into security returns. Several propositions are derived from which consistent estimators of beta are obtained, and the effect of differencing interval length on beta estimates is specified. The formulation is contrasted with the related analyses of Scholes-Williams (1977) and Dimson (1979).

New evidence on the nature of size-related anomalies in stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 12(1), 33-56 open access
This paper is concerned with the size-related anomalies in stock returns reported by Banz (1981) and Reinganum (1981). They showed that small firms have tended to yield returns greater than those predicted by the traditional CAPM. We find that the size effect is linear in the logarithm of size, but reject the hypothesis that the ex ante excess return attributable to size is stable through time. We briefly analyze the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model (SURM) and a two-step procedure as two alternative estimators of the size effect. Due to the instability of the effect, we find that the estimates are sensitive to the time period studied.

Stock return seasonalities and the tax-loss selling hypothesis

Journal of Financial Economics 1983 12(1), 105-127
A ‘tax-loss selling’ hypothesis has frequently been advanced to explain the ‘January effect’ reported in this issue by Keim. This paper concludes that U.S. tax laws do not unambiguously predict such an effect. Since Australia has similar tax laws but a July–June tax year, the hypothesis predicts a small-firm July premium. Australian returns show pronounced December–January and July–August seasonals, and a premium for the smallest-firm decile of about four percent per month across all months. This contrasts with the U.S. data in which the small-firm premium is concentrated in January. We conclude that the relation between the U.S. tax year and the January seasonal may be more correlation than causation.