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Multiple equilibria and term structure models

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 32(3), 333-344
We show the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross term structure framework can allow a variety of alternative equilibrium solutions for discount bond prices. This is important since it allows us additional flexibility in developing models that capture the properties of the term structure. As an example, we solve for the value of a discount bond when the short-term rate is absorbed at zero. We compare the yields implied by this model to those implied by the original Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model. We also show that alternative equilibria can occur in other term structure models.

An ordered probit analysis of transaction stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 31(3), 319-379 open access
We estimate the conditional distribution of trade-to-trade price changes using ordered probit, a statistical model for discrete random variables. This approach recognizes that transaction price changes occur in discrete increments, typically eighths of a dollar, and occur at irregularly-spaced time intervals. Unlike existing models of discrete transactions prices, ordered probit can quantify the effects of other economic variables like volume, past price changes, and the time between trades on price changes. Using 1988 transactions data for over 100 randomly chosen U.S. stocks, we estimate the ordered probit model via maximum likelihood and use the parameter estimates to measure several transaction-related quantities, such as the price impact of trades of a given size, the tendency towards price reversals from one transaction to the next, and the empirical significance of price discreteness.

Do outside directors monitor managers?

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 32(2), 195-221
Examining 128 tender offer bids made from 1980 through 1987, we categorize outside directors as either independent of or having some affiliation with managers, and find that bidding firms on which independent outside directors hold at least 50% of the seats have significantly higher announcement-date abnormal returns than other bidders. However, the relationship between bidding firms' abnormal stock returns and the proportion of board seats held by independent outside directors is nonlinear, suggesting it is possible to have too many independent outside directors. All results are lost if the traditional inside-outside board classification method is used.

Informational externalities of seasoned equity issues

Journal of Financial Economics 1992 32(1), 87-101
We examine share-price reactions of commercial bank common stock issues and find negative effects on rival commercial and investment banking firms. In comparison, we find no such intra-industry effects for equity issues by industrial firms. Our results support theoretical models in which bank loan portfolios impound asymmetric information about client firms, so that adverse individual bank announcements generate external information effects on other banks. A policy implication of these results is that regulatory pressures applied to individual banks induce spillover costs for the commercial and investment banking industries. Our evidence also indicates that the legal separation of commercial and investment banking activities is artificial.