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Aggregate mutual fund flows and security returns

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 39(2-3), 209-235
In this paper I find that aggregate security returns are highly correlated with concurrent unexpected cash flows into mutual funds, but unrelated to concurrent expected flows. An unexpected inflow equal to 1% of total stock fund assets ($4.75 billion) corresponds to a 5.7% increase in the stock price index. Further, fund flows are correlated with the returns of the securities held by the funds, but not with the returns of other types of securities. I find evidence of a positive relation between flows and subsequent returns and evidence of a negative relation between returns and subsequent flows.

Multifactor models do not explain deviations from the CAPM

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 38(1), 3-28 open access
A number of studies have presented evidence rejecting the validity of the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Possible alternatives include risk-based models, such as multifactor asset pricing models, or nonrisk-based models which address biases in empirical methodology, the existence of market frictions, or the presence of irrational investors. Distinguishing between the alternatives is important for applications such as cost of capital estimation. This paper develops a framework which shows that, ex ante, CAPM deviations due to missing risk factors will be very difficult to detect empirically, whereas deviations resulting from nonrisk-based sources are easily detectable. The results suggest that multifactor pricing models alone do not entirely resolve CAPM deviations.

Corporate focus and stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 37(1), 67-87 open access
Greater corporate focus is consistent with shareholder wealth maximization. Diseconomies of scope in the 1980s are confirmed by a trend towards focus or specialization, a positive relation between stock returns and focus increases, and the failure of diversified firms to exploit financial economies of scope (coinsurance of debt or reliance on internal capital markets). Large focused firms were less likely to be subject to hostile takeover attempts than were other firms, but diversified firms were distinguished in the 1980s mostly by being relatively active participants, as both buyers and sellers, in the market for corporate control.

Capital market imperfections and the incentive to lease

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 39(2-3), 271-294
This paper evaluates the influence of financial contracting costs on public corporations' incentives to lease fixed capital. We argue that firms facing high costs of external funds can economize on the cost of funding by leasing. We construct several measures of leasing propensity, plus some a priori indicators of the severity of financial constraints facing firms. We find that the share of total annual fixed capital costs attributable to either capital or operating leases is substantially higher at lower-rated, non-dividend-paying, cash-poor firms — those likely to face relatively high premiums for external funds.

Firm failure and managerial labor markets evidence from Texas banking

Journal of Financial Economics 1995 38(2), 185-210
We study the managerial labor market's ability to discriminate between good and bad managerial performance. Using a sample of failed and nonfailed Texas banks, we find that the context of job loss affects the manager's ability to regain comparable employment. Managers associated with banks that failed for reasons arguably beyond the managers' control were twice as likely to regain comparable banking posts as managers at other failed banks. We also detect a relation between the probability of post-failure reemployment and a manager's rank within the firm and to proxies for managerial self-dealing and competence.