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Micro uncertainty and asset prices

Journal of Financial Economics 2023 149(1), 27-51 open access
Size and value premia comove strongly with one another at low frequencies, but they are both negatively related to long-run movements in the equity premium. We explain these patterns in an investment-based asset pricing model featuring persistent micro and macro uncertainty. Micro uncertainty generates size and value premia waves, while macroeconomic uncertainty produces equity premium waves. The negative correlation between micro and macro uncertainty at low frequencies explains why the equity premium is a long-term hedge for size and value premia. Persistent micro uncertainty is also a source of instability for size and value factors in short samples.

The common factor in idiosyncratic volatility: Quantitative asset pricing implications

Journal of Financial Economics 2016 119(2), 249-283
We show that firms׳ idiosyncratic volatility obeys a strong factor structure and that shocks to the common idiosyncratic volatility (CIV) factor are priced. Stocks in the lowest CIV-beta quintile earn average returns 5.4% per year higher than those in the highest quintile. The CIV factor helps to explain a number of asset pricing anomalies. We provide new evidence linking the CIV factor to income risk faced by households. Our findings are consistent with an incomplete markets heterogeneous agent model. In the model, CIV is a priced state variable because an increase in idiosyncratic firm volatility raises the average household׳s marginal utility. The calibrated model matches the high degree of co-movement in idiosyncratic volatilities, the CIV-beta return spread, and several other asset price moments.