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Geographical segmentation of US capital markets

Journal of Financial Economics 2007 85(1), 151-178
Demographic variation in savings behavior can be exploited to provide evidence on segmentation in US bank loan markets. Cities with a large fraction of seniors have higher volumes of bank deposits. Since many banks rely heavily on deposit financing, this affects local loan supply and economic activity. I show a positive effect of local deposit supply on local outcomes, including the number of firms, the number of manufacturing firms, and the number of new firms started. The effect is stronger in industries that are heavily dependent on external finance. The deregulation of intrastate branching reduced the effect of local deposit supply by approximately a third.

How did increased competition affect credit ratings?

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 101(3), 493-514
The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, leading to long-standing legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers a unique experiment to empirically examine how increased competition affects the credit ratings market. What we find is relatively troubling. Specifically, we discover that increased competition from Fitch coincides with lower quality ratings from the incumbents: Rating levels went up, the correlation between ratings and market-implied yields fell, and the ability of ratings to predict default deteriorated. We offer several possible explanations for these findings that are linked to existing theories.

Reputations and credit ratings: Evidence from commercial mortgage-backed securities

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 135(2), 425-444
How do changes in a rating agency's reputation affect the ratings market? We study the dynamics of credit ratings after Standard & Poor's (S&P) was shut out of a large segment of the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) ratings market following a procedural mistake. Exploiting the fact that most CMBS have ratings from multiple agencies, we show that S&P subsequently eased its standards compared to other raters. This coincided with a partial recovery in the number of deals S&P was hired to rate. Our findings suggest that an agency can regain market share after suffering reputational damage by issuing optimistic ratings.

Non-rating revenue and conflicts of interest

Journal of Financial Economics 2018 127(1), 94-112
Rating agencies produce ratings used by investors, but obtain most of their revenue from issuers, leading to a conflict of interest. We employ a unique data set on the use of non-rating services, and the associated payments, in India, to test if this conflict affects ratings quality. Agencies rate issuers that pay them for non-rating services higher (than agencies not hired for such services). Such issuers also have higher default rates. Both effects are increasing in the amount paid. These results suggest that issuers which hire agencies for non-rating services receive higher ratings despite having higher default risk.

Payout taxes and the allocation of investment

Journal of Financial Economics 2013 107(1), 1-24 open access
When corporate payout is taxed, internal equity (retained earnings) is cheaper than external equity (share issues). If there are no perfect substitutes for equity finance, payout taxes may therefore have an effect on the investment of firms. High taxes will favor investment by firms who can finance internally. Using an international panel with many changes in payout taxes, we show that this prediction holds well. Payout taxes have a large impact on the dynamics of corporate investment and growth. Investment is “locked in” in profitable firms when payout is heavily taxed. Thus, apart from any level effects, payout taxes change the allocation of capital.