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The information content of litigation participation securities: the case of CalFed Bancorp

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 60(2-3), 371-399
CalFed Bancorp is one of 126 S&Ls suing the U.S. government for breach of contract related to supervisory goodwill, a form of goodwill created by the acquisition of insolvent thrifts during the early 1980s. Before a determination of damages in its lawsuit, CalFed announced and issued a litigation participation security giving shareholders a proportional claim on recovered damages, if any. This announcement generated a positive excess return in part because it made CalFed a more likely acquisition target. Trading in the security also reveals important, yet previously unavailable, information about CalFed's lawsuit: its price reveals a market-based estimate of damages while its beta reveals information regarding expected returns and trial duration. In a broader context, this paper identifies acquisition facilitation as a benefit of issuing targeted stock and highlights a series of lawsuits that will set important precedents regarding the determination of liability and the estimation of damages in breach of contract cases.

The optimal spread and offering price for underwritten securities

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 62(1), 169-198
The paper develops the net proceeds maximization theory explaining how the spread and offering price are determined in all underwritten offerings in the U.S. The theory yields solutions for the optimal spread and offering price for all underwritten securities and it yields comparative statics that explain the cross-sectional variation in actual spreads and initial returns across different types of underwritten securities. The theory also suggests two alternative explanations to the ones offered by Chen and Ritter (J. Finance 55 (2000) 1105) for the clustering of unseasoned equity offerings spreads at 7%.

Market reaction to public information: The atypical case of the Boston Celtics

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 60(2-3), 333-370
The publicly traded Boston Celtics Limited Partnership shares provide a unique means of studying the impact of information on equity prices. The results of the Celtics’ basketball games significantly affect partnership share returns, trading volume, and volatility. Controlling for the expectedvalue of the signal using betting-market point spreads has little effect on these relations. Investors respond asymmetrically to wins and losses, and playoff games have a larger impact on returns than regular-season games. Opening prices do not fully reflect game results, consistent with previous findings that significant volatility is caused by traders acting on private information.

The duration of bank relationships

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 61(3), 449-475
We analyze the duration of bank relationships using a unique panel data set of listed firms and their banks from the bank-dominated Norwegian market. We find that firms are more likely to leave a bank as the relationship matures. Small, profitable, and highly leveraged firms maintain shorter bank relationships, as do firms with multiple bank relationships. These findings are robust to censoring, alternate specifications for the distribution of relationship duration, and other control variables relevant to the Norwegian market. Overall, our results cast doubt on theories suggesting that firms become locked into bank relationships.

Forecasting crashes: trading volume, past returns, and conditional skewness in stock prices

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 61(3), 345-381
We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have experienced (1) an increase in trading volume relative to trend over the prior six months, consistent with the model of Hong and Stein (NBER Working Paper, 1999), and (2) positive returns over the prior 36 months, which fits with a number of theories, most notably Blanchard and Watson's (Crises in Economic and Financial Structure. Lexington Books, Lexington, MA, 1982, pp. 295–315) rendition of stock-price bubbles. Analogous results also obtain when we attempt to forecast the skewness of the aggregate stock market, though our statistical power in this case is limited.