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Depositor discipline and changing strategies for regulating thrift institutions

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 63(2), 263-274
This paper examines the role of uninsured deposits as a source of thrift funding from 1984 to 1994, and tests whether uninsured depositors have adjusted their holdings at thrifts in response to market forces, such as indications of impending institutional failure. It also examines how the reactions have changed over time as new legislation has been implemented. The study finds that failed institutions exhibit declining proportions of uninsured deposits-to-total-deposits prior to failure and that failing institutions attract fewer deposits from uninsured depositors prior to failure than do solvent institutions. Though there are some differences between the periods, the empirical results indicate that uninsured deposits will be governed by market discipline and that reducing the insurance limits on deposits will increase market discipline on thrifts.

The impact of specialist firm acquisitions on market quality

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 66(1), 139-167
Acquisitions among New York Stock Exchange specialist firms can increase specialist firm size, capitalization, and market concentration, and thereby affect the market quality of the stocks they trade. We find that while traded stocks show significant improvement in several market quality measures following acquisitions, similar changes are evident in matched control stocks not involved in acquisitions. We conclude that specialist firm acquisitions either do not improve market quality, or improve market quality, but competitive and other pressures (resulting partly from the acquisitions themselves) force improvements in market quality for control stocks also. Either interpretation implies that specialist acquisitions have not had deleterious effects on market quality.

Breadth of ownership and stock returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 66(2-3), 171-205
We develop a stock market model with differences of opinion and short-sales constraints. When breadth is low—i.e., when few investors have long positions—this signals that the short-sales constraint is binding tightly, and that prices are high relative to fundamentals. Thus reductions in breadth should forecast lower returns. Using data on mutual fund holdings, we find that stocks whose change in breadth in the prior quarter is in the lowest decile of the sample underperform those in the top decile by 6.38% in the twelve months after formation. Adjusting for size, book-to-market, and momentum, the figure is 4.95%.

Stocks are special too: an analysis of the equity lending market

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 66(2-3), 241-269 open access
With a year of equity loans by a major lender, we measure the effect of actual short-selling costs and constraints on trading strategies that involve short-selling. We find the loans of initial public offering (IPOs), DotCom, large-cap, growth and low-momentum stocks to be cheap relative to the strategies’ documented profits and that investors who can short only stocks that are cheap and easy to borrow can enjoy at least some of the profits of unconstrained investors. Most IPOs are loaned on their first settlement days and throughout their first months, and the underperformance around lockup expiration is significant even for the IPOs that are cheap and easy to borrow. The effect of short-selling frictions appears strongest in merger arbitrage. Acquirers’ stock is expensive to borrow, especially when the acquirer is small, though the major influence on trading profits is not through expense but availability.