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Uncovering expected returns: Information in analyst coverage proxies

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 124(2), 331-348 open access
We show that analyst coverage proxies contain information about expected returns. We decompose analyst coverage into abnormal and expected components using a simple characteristic-based model and show that firms with abnormally high analyst coverage subsequently outperform firms with abnormally low coverage by approximately 80 basis points per month. We also show abnormal coverage rises following exogenous shocks to underpricing and predicts improvements in firms’ fundamental performance, suggesting that return predictability stems from analysts more heavily covering underpriced stocks. Our findings highlight the usefulness of analysts’ actions in expected return estimations, and a potential inference problem when coverage proxies are used to study information asymmetry and dissemination.

Reexamining staggered boards and shareholder value

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 125(3), 637-647 open access
Cohen and Wang (2013) (CW2013) provide evidence consistent with market participants perceiving staggered boards to be value reducing. Amihud and Stoyanov (2016) (AS2016) contests these findings, reporting some specifications under which the results are not statistically significant. We show that the results retain their significance under a wide array of robustness tests that address the concerns expressed by AS2016. Our empirical findings reinforce the conclusions of CW2013.

Socioeconomic status and learning from financial information

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 124(2), 349-372
The majority of lower socioeconomic status (SES) households in the U.S. and Europe do not have stock investments, which is detrimental to wealth accumulation. Here, we examine one explanation for this puzzling fact, namely, that economic adversity may influence how people learn from financial information. Using experimental and survey data from the U.S. and Romania, we find that lower SES individuals form more pessimistic beliefs about the distribution of stock returns and are less likely to invest in stocks when these investments are likely to have good outcomes. SES-related differences in pessimism may help explain variation in investments across households.

Moral hazard in active asset management

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 125(2), 311-325 open access
We consider a model of active asset management in which mutual fund managers exert unobservable effort to earn excess returns. Investors allocate capital to actively managed funds and passively managed products. In equilibrium, investors are indifferent between investing an additional dollar with an active manager or with a passively managed product. As passively managed products become more attractive to investors, active managers’ revenues from portfolio-management services fall, reducing their effort incentives. More-severe decreasing-returns-to-scale are also associated with reduced incentives and increased moral hazard. Performance-based fees and holdings-based data are all unlikely to mitigate moral hazard.

The impacts of political uncertainty on asset prices: Evidence from the Bo scandal in China

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 125(2), 286-310 open access
Models of political risk predict that increases in political uncertainty cause stock prices to fall, especially for politically sensitive firms. We use the event of the Bo Xilai political scandal in 2012 in China as an exogenous shock to identify the impact of political uncertainty on asset prices. We document that the Bo scandal caused a significant drop in stock prices, especially for firms that are more politically sensitive. Further analysis shows that the stock price drop is mainly driven by a change in discount rate, providing strong support for the existence of priced political risk.

Tax uncertainty and retirement savings diversification

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 126(3), 689-712
We investigate the optimal savings decisions for investors with access to pre-tax (traditional) and post-tax (Roth) versions of tax-advantaged retirement accounts. The model features a progressive tax schedule and uncertainty over future tax rates. Traditional accounts are valuable for hedging retirement account performance and managing current income near tax-bracket cutoffs, whereas Roth accounts allow investors to mitigate uncertainty over future tax schedules. The optimal asset location policy for most households involves diversifying between traditional and Roth vehicles. Contrary to conventional advice, the substantial economic benefits from Roth investments are not limited to investors with low current income.