We make two contributions to the study of interest rates. The first is to characterize their dynamics in a new way. We estimate forecasting relations based on one-period changes in forward rates, which are more easily compared than earlier work on yields to the stationary theory of bond pricing. The second is to approximate these dynamics and other salient features of interest rates with an affine model. We show that models with “negative” factors come closer to accounting for the properties of interest rates, including their dynamics, than multifactor Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models.

Traditional studies fail to find conclusive evidence that bank mergers create value. We analyze a sample of the largest bank mergers between 1985 and 1996. For a subset of this sample, we obtain management estimates of projected cost savings and revenue enhancements. We find that recent mergers appear to result in positive revaluations of the combined value of bidder and target stocks. Although not as large as the present value of management's estimates, with the bulk of the revaluation being attributable to estimated cost savings rather than projected revenue enhancements.