The combination of rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities can create unintentional synchronization of homeowner leverage, leading to a “ratchet” effect on leverage because homes are indivisible and owner-occupants cannot raise equity to reduce leverage when home prices fall. Our simulation of the U.S. housing market yields potential losses of 1.7 trillion from June 2006 to December 2008 with cash-out refinancing vs. only 330 billion in the absence of cash-out refinancing. The refinancing ratchet effect is a new type of systemic risk in the financial system and does not rely on any dysfunctional behaviors.

We study the trade-offs that biotech start-ups face in the private equity market when they choose between raising firm-level capital from venture capitalists or project-level capital from strategic alliance partners. Increased alliance activity makes future alliances more likely, but future VC activity less likely. In contrast, venture capital (VC) activity makes both future alliance and future VC activity more likely. Both types of private capital raise the hazard of going public. Acquisition as an alternative to initial public offering is made more likely by increased VC activity, but the link between acquisition probabilities and alliance activity is less clear-cut. These results highlight both the importance of alliance partners in resolving asymmetric information problems in the capital acquisition process and the potential conflict of interest between different sources of private equity.