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The dilution impact of daily fund flows on open-end mutual funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 65(1), 131-158
We examine how mutual fund flows that are correlated with subsequent fund returns can have a dilution impact on the performance of open-end funds. Active trading of open-end funds has a meaningful economic impact on the returns of passive, nontrading shareholders, particularly in U.S.-based international funds. The overall sample of domestic equity funds shows no dilution impact, but we find an annualized negative impact of 0.48% in international funds (and nearly 1% for a subsample of funds whose daily flows are particularly large). The exchange and pricing policies of mutual funds can thus have important performance-related implications.

Simulated likelihood estimation of diffusions with an application to exchange rate dynamics in incomplete markets

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 63(2), 161-210
We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new continuous-time model of the joint dynamics of interest rates in two countries and the exchange rate between the two currencies. The model allows financial markets to be incomplete and specifies the degree of incompleteness as a stochastic process. Our empirical results offer several new insights into the dynamics of exchange rates.

Econometric models of limit-order executions

Journal of Financial Economics 2002 65(1), 31-71
We develop and estimate an econometric model of limit-order execution times using survival analysis and actual limit-order data. We estimate versions for time-to-first-fill and time-to-completion for both buy and sell limit orders, and incorporate the effects of explanatory variables such as the limit price, limit size, bid/offer spread, and market volatility. Execution times are very sensitive to the limit price, but are not sensitive to limit size. Hypothetical limit-order executions, constructed either theoretically from first-passage times or empirically from transactions data, are very poor proxies for actual limit-order executions.