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Swap trading after Dodd-Frank: Evidence from index CDS

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(3), 857-886 open access
The Dodd-Frank Act mandates that certain standard over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives must be traded on swap execution facilities (SEFs). Using message-level data, we provide a granular analysis of dealers’ and customers’ trading behavior on the two largest dealer-to-customer SEFs for index credit default swaps (CDS). On average, a typical customer contacts few dealers when seeking liquidity. A theoretical model shows that the benefit of competition through wider order exposure is mitigated by a winner’s curse problem and dealer-customer relationships. Consistent with the model, we find that order size, market conditions, and customer-dealer relationships are important empirical determinants of customers’ choice of trading mechanism and dealers’ liquidity provision.

Credit and social unrest: Evidence from 1930s China

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 138(2), 295-315 open access
Do credit contractions trigger social unrest? To answer this question, we turn to a natural experiment from 1930s China, where the 1933 U.S. Silver Purchase program acts as a shock to bank lending. We assemble a hand-collected data set of loan contracts between banks and firms, labor unrest episodes, and underground Communist Party penetration. The Silver Purchase shock results in a severe credit contraction, and firms borrowing from banks with a larger exposure to it experience increased labor unrest and Communist Party penetration among their workers. These findings contribute to understanding the socio-political consequences of credit shocks.