Knowledge that Transforms

This paper investigates whether the institutional affiliation of a collateralized loan obligation (CLO) manager influences the manager's access to information and risk appetite. We find that CLO managers affiliated with banks start to sell off their positions in loans arranged by their bank well before the onset of default. In contrast, CLO managers affiliated with nonbanks do not lower their exposures to distressed loans. These findings are consistent with bank-affiliated CLO managers being more risk averse, but they could also derive from them having access to valuable information. On close inspection, we find that although bank-affiliated CLO managers are averse to holding any distressed loans, they are also more aggressive at divesting distressed loans arranged by their parent bank, suggesting that they benefit from an information wedge. Besides helping us understand CLO managers’ trading activities, our findings highlight a potential limit to banks’ ability to originate loans and distribute them via their affiliated CLOs.

In this paper, we analyse the restructuring of debt in the presence of debt overhang. The firm starts out with a debt liability and an investment opportunity. Then with unrestructured debt, the firm maintains the current borrowing payments until default or investment. If the creditors allow the parties to restructure the debt with exchange offers, then the borrowing payments change as well as the default and investment points. We find that there is a unique optimal restructuring path which maintains debt at positive levels but defers default indefinitely. This path is optimal regardless of whether the debt holders or the firm control the process through superior bargaining power. Moreover, a debt-for-equity exchange to remove all existing debt takes place just before investment that is followed by the issue of an optimal amount of new debt as part of the funding for the investment cost. The optimal investment trigger is higher along the optimal restructuring path than it is for an unlevered firm. We discuss the findings in the light of existing empirical evidence.

Using a rich sample of small and medium-sized European manufacturers, we investigate the nexus between banks’ relationship lending technologies and firms’ export activities during the 2009 great trade collapse. We find that the contraction of firms’ export was milder when banks had access to up-to-date “soft” information on firms’ export prospects. However, we find no evidence of an association between the resilience of firms’ export and banks’ experience on firms’ past activities. The nexus between export resilience and banks’ access to soft information is especially tight for young and small exporters and for firms at an early stage of internationalization.

We construct a novel dataset that matches bank holding company credit default swap (CDS) positions to detailed U.S. credit registry data containing both loan and corporate bond holdings by large U.S. banks. The dataset sheds new light on how banks use CDS, and what effects, if any, CDS use has on corporate credit risk. We show that few banks insure loans, even loans of distressed borrowers, suggesting that empty creditor problems among banks are not widespread. We find that banks are more likely to sell than buy CDS when they have a lending relationship with CDS firms. We then create new aggregate measures of hedging activity based on position-level data to test the empty creditor hypothesis. Contrary to existing studies, aggregate measures of credit risk hedging that do not condition on lending relationships overstate bank hedging activity. Furthermore, our regression results do not find any evidence that firm credit risk is adversely impacted when banks in particular purchase CDS.

Prior empirical investigations of corporate failures consider the effects of macroeconomic conditions and financial health, but the literature contains limited evidence of the real effects of the bank shocks caused by the sovereign debt crisis. Using a rich source of high-quality firm-bank matched data for 2005–2014, this study examines the real effects of bank shocks on firms’ survival prospects in Portugal. We first present evidence that a funding outflow is associated with a reduction in the credit supply. Furthermore, firms borrowing from banks exposed to the funding outflow are more likely to fail. We also uncover significant heterogeneity in firms’ financial positions and show that the negative effect of a funding shock is stronger for younger, higher-risk firms, and those that used their potential lines of bank credit.

Financial institutions are financed by both investors and customers. Investors expect an appropriate risk-adjusted return for providing financing and risk bearing. Customers, in contrast, provide financing in exchange for specific services, and want the service fulfillment to be free of the intermediary's credit risk. We develop a framework that defines the roles of customers and investors in intermediaries, and use it to build an economic theory that has the following main findings. First, with positive net social surplus in the intermediary-customer relationship, the efficient (first best) contract completely insulates the customer from the intermediary's credit risk, thereby exposing the customer only to the risk inherent in the contract terms. Second, when intermediaries face financing frictions, the second-best contract may expose the customer to some intermediary credit risk, generating “customer contract fulfillment” costs. Third, the efficiency loss associated with these costs in the second best rationalizes government guarantees like deposit insurance even when there is no threat of bank runs. We further discuss the implications of this customer-investor nexus for numerous issues related to the design of contracts between financial intermediaries and their customers, the sharing of risks between them, ex ante efficient institutional design, regulatory practices, and the evolving boundaries between banks and financial markets.

This paper offers a framework to understand informal financing based on mechanisms to deal with asymmetric information and enforcement. We find that constructive informal financing such as trade credits and family borrowing that relies on information advantages or an altruistic relationship is associated with good firm performance. Underground financing such as money lenders who use violence for enforcement is not. Constructive informal financing is prevalent in regions where access to bank loans is extensive, while its role in supporting firm growth decreases with bank loan availability. International comparisons show that China is not an outlier but rather average in using informal financing.

Current empirical methods to identify and assess the impact of bank credit supply shocks rely strictly on multi-bank firms and ignore firms borrowing from only one bank. Yet, these single-bank firms are often the majority of firms in an economy and most prone to credit supply shocks. We propose and underpin an alternative demand control (using industry–location–size–time fixed effects) that allows identifying time-varying cross-sectional bank credit supply shocks using both single- and multi-bank firms. Using matched bank-firm credit data from Belgium, we show that firms borrowing from banks with negative credit supply shocks exhibit lower financial debt growth, asset growth, investments, and operating margin growth. Positive credit supply shocks are associated with bank risk-taking behaviour at the extensive margin. Importantly, to capture these effects it is crucial to include the single-bank firms when identifying the bank credit supply shocks.

In this paper, we use credit rating data from two large Swedish banks to elicit evidence on banks’ loan monitoring ability. For these banks, our tests reveal that banks’ internal credit ratings indeed include valuable private information from monitoring, as theory suggests. Banks’ private information increases with the size of loans. However, our tests also reveal that publicly available information from a credit bureau is not efficiently impounded in the bank ratings: credit bureau ratings predict future movements in bank ratings and improve forecasts of both bankruptcy and loan default. The inefficiency of bank ratings is greater for smaller loans. We investigate possible explanations for these findings. Our results are consistent with bank loan officers placing too much weight on their private information, a form of overconfidence. Risk analyses of the loan portfolios in our data could thus be improved by combining the bank credit ratings with public credit bureau ratings. The methods we use represent a new basket of straightforward techniques that enable both financial institutions and regulators to assess the performance of credit rating systems.

The 1960s and 1970s witnessed rapid growth in the markets for new money market instruments, such as negotiable certificates of deposit (CDs) and Eurodollar deposits, as banks and investors sought ways around various regulations affecting funding markets. In this paper, we investigate the impacts of the deregulation and integration of the money markets. We find that the pricing and volume of negotiable CDs and Eurodollars issued were influenced by the availability of other short-term safe assets, especially Treasury bills. Banks appear to have issued these money market instruments as substitutes for other types of funding. The integration of money markets and ability of banks to raise funds using a greater variety of substitutable instruments has implications for monetary policy. We find that, when deregulation reduced money market segmentation, larger open market operations were required to produce a given change in the federal funds rate, but that the pass through of changes in the funds rate to other market rates was also greater.