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The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2004 13(2), 265-283
The asymptotic single risk factor approach is a framework for determining regulatory capital charges for credit risk, and it has become an integral part of the second Basel Accord. Within this approach, a key parameter is the average asset correlation. We examine the empirical relationship between this parameter, firm probability of default and firm asset size measured by the book value of assets. Using data from year-end 2000, credit portfolios consisting of US, Japanese, and European firms are analyzed. The empirical results suggest that average asset correlation is a decreasing function of probability of default and an increasing function of asset size. The results suggest that these factors may need to be accounted for in the final calculation of regulatory capital requirements for credit risk.

Bank mergers, the market for bank CEOs, and managerial incentives

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2004 13(1), 6-27
After a large bank merger, the compensation of the surviving bank's CEO often increases materially. Theories of executive compensation based on managerial productivity and optimal incentives suggest that changes in CEO compensation are related to the potential gains from merger. Alternatively, compensation gains might result from an increase in bank size regardless of whether the merger creates value. We examine mergers among billion-dollar banks in the 1990s and find results consistent with managerial productivity. Specifically, we show empirically that changes in CEO compensation after mergers are positively related to anticipated gains from merger measured at the announcement date. Other changes in the structure of compensation are also consistent with hypotheses based on managerial productivity and incentive restructuring.