Knowledge that Transforms

We construct two types of trading shocks and examine their effects on stock prices. Common shocks capture the shared trading activity across funds, whereas granular idiosyncratic shocks place emphasis on large players. Common shocks related to stock sales exhibit a significantly stronger price impact than those related to purchases, in contrast to symmetric effects of purchases and sales for granular idiosyncratic shocks. The initial price impact persists in the short run and partially reverses after six months, suggesting underreaction to institutional trading. Our results underscore the impact of the common component across various funds on asset prices and market efficiency.

This paper documents coarse pricing by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s counterparty intermediaries in quantitative easing operations. Although the Fed explicitly sets a tick size of 1/256th in its reverse auctions to purchase Treasury securities, offer prices of primary dealers exhibit strong clustering on coarser grids. Top dealers price more finely, and coarse pricing is particularly prevalent when the security characteristics indicate greater difficulty in precise pricing. I argue that this coarse pricing results from information costs associated with increasing pricing precision. The results also point to a novel role of tick size in affecting dealer competition in central bank operations. • The Federal Reserve purchases U.S. Treasury securities through reverse auctions for quantitative easing(QE). • This paper documents coarse pricing by the New York Fed’s primary dealers (PDs) in these auctions. • PDs with larger market shares engage less in coarse pricing. • Cross-sectional analysis reveals that information costs of increasing price precision drive this dealer behavior. • Policy implications are discussed.

We study the trading activity of designated market makers (DMMs) in electronic markets using a unique dataset with audit-trail information on trader classification. DMMs may either adhere to their market-making agreements and offer immediacy during periods of heavy selling pressure, or they might lean-with-the-wind to profit from private information. We test these competing theories during extreme (downward) price movements, which we detect using a novel methodology. We show that DMMs provide liquidity when the selling pressure is concentrated on a single stock, but consume liquidity (leaving liquidity provision to slower traders) when several stocks are affected.

When measured using trade-time aggregation, intraday patterns in trading activity remain ∪ -shaped, but estimates of volatility and Kyle’s lambda fall sharply from open to close. ∪ -shaped patterns in volatility and Kyle’s lambda found using commonly-used calendar-time aggregation reflect over-aggregation biases when trading activity is high as near the open and close. Indicative of imperfectly-competitive liquidity provision, trade-time aggregation also reveals that in active markets, expected trade imbalances are positively priced and unexpected trade imbalances are more strongly priced when they share the sign of expected imbalances, while in less active markets expected trade imbalances are negatively priced. • When properly measured using trade-time aggregation, intraday patterns in trading activity are ∪ -shaped, but estimates of volatility and Kyle’s lambda fall sharply from open to close. • ∪ -shaped patterns in volatility and Kyle’s lambda found using commonly- used calendar-time aggregation reflect over-aggregation biases when trad- ing activity is high as near open and close. • Contrary to competitive liquidity provision, in active markets returns per- sist, expected trade imbalances are positively priced and unexpected trade imbalances are more strongly priced when they have the same sign as ex- pected imbalances. • In further contrast to competitive liquidity provision, in less active markets prices revert and expected trade imbalances are negatively priced.

Limit order markets use a queuing system in which limit orders must wait in line to execute. We show that the queue position of a limit order influences its adverse selection risk and inhibits inventory risk management. Trade may worsen market maker risk sharing, unlike many protocols without queuing. We uncover a crowding-out effect: An inventory shock reduces liquidity provision by market makers later in the queue. Using futures data, we confirm both low risk sharing and the crowding-out effect. These two results imply a trade-off, as the queuing sequence that optimizes risk sharing decreases quoted depth up to 8.4%. • Queue position affects adverse-selection risk and inventory management. • Market-maker risk sharing may worsen due to queuing. • Inventory shocks reduce liquidity provision later in the queue. • Canadian futures data confirm low risk sharing and crowding-out effects. • Optimizing risk sharing lowers quoted depth by up to 8.4%.

This study examines how inventory control and private information affect trading prices and volumes in a centralized interdealer foreign exchange (FX) market. Using exogenous variation from FX auctions conducted by the Colombian Central Bank (2008–2014), we analyze settlement data from the COP/USD spot market before and after each auction. Comparing dealers with differing inventory and information shocks, we find that those with reduced inventories increase net USD purchases and pay higher prices post-auction.

We investigate the effects of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ’s) exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchase program on equity risk premia. Utilizing the cross-sectional variations in the amount of individual stock that the BOJ has indirectly purchased in the program, the empirical analysis reveals that: (i) the BOJ’s ETF purchases instantaneously support stock prices on purchase, and (ii) the positive effects on stock prices, combined with the countercyclical nature of the BOJ’s purchases, affect the market beta and coskewness of Japanese stocks, leading to an economically significant decline in risk premia. • Countercyclical BOJ purchases lower Japanese equity risk premia. • BOJ’s ETF program reduces market beta and coskewness of stocks. • Decline in risk premia significantly boosts Japanese stock prices. • Panel data reveal cross-sectional effects of BOJ’s ETF purchases.

In light of changes in the media landscape from traditional print towards social media, in this study we compare the ability of investor sentiment measures obtained from various media sources to predict short-term market returns. We show that investor sentiment extracted from the social media platform Seeking Alpha is better in predicting market returns than investor sentiment obtained from the Wall Street Journal , a traditional print medium. Seeking Alpha is more suitable for the extraction of investor sentiment due to the richer language and timeliness of online media. • Research in behavioural finance has shown the importance of irrational investor sentiment to explain transitory stock market returns. • This study compares the ability of investor sentiment measures obtained from various media sources to predict short-term market returns. • Using a large data set of daily articles and reader comments from 2006 to 2020, this study shows that investor sentiment extracted from the social media platform Seeking Alpha is better in predicting market returns than investor sentiment obtained from the Wall Street Journal, a traditional print medium. • Seeking Alpha is more suitable to extract investor sentiment because of the richer language and timeliness of online media. • In contrast, differences in the volume and length of articles published on Seeking Alpha, and the greater variety of contributors, cannot explain the relative advantage of social media.