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Do interbank markets price systemic risk?

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101223
The breakdown of the interbank market was a critical moment in the unfolding of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008. We argue that the adequate pricing of risks is critical for the functioning of a market of such vital importance as the interbank market. We use a unique panel data set that allows us to quantify counterparty risk and different types of systemic risks associated with interbank exposures. We use a simultaneous equation model for interbank lending and deposit rates to study whether counterparty risk and systemic risk are adequately priced. As expected, we find that riskier banks on average pay a higher deposit rate. However, on average, banks grant a discount in their lending rates to riskier banks. For systemic risk, we also find mixed results. The positive effect on the deposit rate declines, but the negative effect on the lending rate remains. We argue that the mixed results regarding the pricing of systemic risk might ex-post justify parts of the Basel III reform package that forces systemically important banks to hold higher capital buffers.

The role of banks’ technology adoption in credit markets during the pandemic

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101230
This paper shows that higher information technology (IT) adoption by banks was associated to a larger increase in corporate lending in the months following the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Examining banks with heterogeneous degrees of IT adoption, we investigate the dynamics of credit and its allocation across firms using a new database with detailed information on banks’ IT expenditures and use of innovative technologies matched with bank-firm level data on credit growth before and during the pandemic. Using a diff-in-diff approach, we find that banks with a higher share of IT spending increased their credit more than others during the pandemic. The increase was concentrated in term loans extended to smaller and financially sounder companies; the effect was stronger in the initial phase of tighter restrictions to firm activity and individual mobility, and more significant for undertakings active in the sectors most affected by the shock. We provide evidence that these results are driven by bank’s ability to offer credit entirely online and bank’s use of artificial intelligence for credit risk assessment. Physical proximity between borrowers and lenders was important for credit provision during the pandemic, but only when combined with high level of IT adoption.

Bridging the information gap: How digitalization shapes stock price informativeness

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101217
Digitalization is a crucial strategy for firms to gain a competitive advantage. This study utilizes data from Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2020 to examine how digitalization affects firms' stock price informativeness. Empirical results demonstrate that digitalization reduces stock price synchronicity and promotes firms' stock price informativeness. Moreover, digitalization improves stock price informativeness by enhancing investment efficiency and firm value, reducing information asymmetry, and alleviating agency costs. These findings suggest that effective digital strategies and capabilities constitute an important yet underappreciated resource that enables firms to generate value-relevant information and improve the information environment in emerging capital markets. Our study contributes new evidence on the financial market implications of digital transformation from a resource-based view perspective.

Auditor certification and long-run performance of IPO stocks

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 70, 101214
This study establishes a significant positive relation between high quality auditors and long-run post-IPO equity performance. IPOs associated with high-ranked auditors benefit from superior information quality irrespective of underwriter rank, manifesting in significantly better post-IPO equity performance. The auditor certification effect is robust and persists longer than the underwriter certification effect. IPOs, regardless of the underwriter rank, benefit significantly from the auditor reputation effect. Further, the auditor certification effect is more pronounced: (a) when underwriter certification is weak (‘substitution effect’), and (b) in the presence of greater information asymmetry. VC backed IPOs perform significantly better; however, VC reputation has no effect, after controlling for auditor rank and underwriter certification. Our conclusions are reinforced by a battery of robustness checks, including the use of alternative methodologies to address endogeneity, audit quality proxies, performance metrics, model specifications, and validity tests.

Are ICOs the best? A comparison of different fundraising models in blockchain-based fundraising

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 73, 101288
Blockchain is a ground-breaking technology with potential applications in fundraising. In this study, we analyze the blockchain-based fundraising data from 2019 to 2021 to investigate the differences between various fundraising models (i.e., ICO, IEO, IDO, and MIX). More specifically, in Study 1, we conduct ANCOVA and ANOVA to examine differences in fundraising success and token performance after listing between different fundraising models. In Study 2, we first explore the factors that affect fundraising success and token performance, and then verify whether the impact of these factors varies between fundraising models. The findings of our research have implications for both firms and investors, assisting firms in selecting the most effective fundraising models and aiding investors in identifying tokens with the greatest potential.

“Thank me later”: Why is (macro)prudence desirable?

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101227
We examine the social desirability of macroprudential measures, particularly those aimed at riskier home buyers. We examine the effectiveness of these measures against social costs, such as reduced access to the housing ladder for poorer households. Our analysis shows that the measures implemented so far have not limited access to credit or the housing markets. They have been effective in limiting the riskiest loans, minimizing negative equity episodes, reducing systemic risks by debilitating the house price-leverage spiral, and limiting the depths of contractions of a range of macro-financial variables. The welfare of households has also improved. Costs from these measures have been limited and have materialized through a rise in the age-income profile of first-time buyers, and somewhat more attenuated booms. Our results point to the conclusion that macroprudence is desirable when insulated from short-term interference and quick gains. The economy becomes more robust and even households in the lowest decile of the wealth distribution benefit from the general equilibrium effects of more stable financial provision.

When banks become pure creditors: The effects of declining shareholding by Japanese banks on bank lending and firms’ risk-taking

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 73, 101294
This study empirically examines the impact of an exogenous decrease in banks’ shareholding on bank loans and firms’ risk-taking, utilizing a regulatory change in Japan relating to banks’ shareholding as an instrument. We find that an exogenous reduction in a bank’s shareholding decreased the bank’s share of loans in the client firm’s total loans, while it increased the volatility of a firm’s return on assets. The reduction in a bank’s shareholding did not affect firm risk as perceived by equity investors or its borrowing terms. These findings are consistent with the prediction that banks hold equity claims over client firms to gain a competitive advantage, and are weakly compatible with the prediction that banks’ shareholding mitigates shareholder–creditor conflict.

Isolating defensive corporate ESG effects: Evidence from purely domestic anti-COVID-19 measures

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 71, 101220
Few studies investigate whether ESG mitigates the harmful effects of changes in firms’ external environments. We evidence that ESG mitigated the impact of COVID-19 work-from-home and workplace prescriptions amongst several other pandemic-related government regulatory interventions, even when controlling for firm size. In a novel approach, we apply scrutiny of firms to restrict our cross-national sample to only firms with no cross-border trade, that is, explicitly domestically focused operational processes irrespective of the endpoint of corporate sales, enhancing methodological robustness. Consequently, we isolate an ESG effect. Results indicate the existence of a premium during the onset of each analysed national pandemic experience, particularly pronounced for those corporations that had achieved more substantiative ESG-based preparation and development before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.