Knowledge that Transforms

Employing a dataset of 1,160 Indian firms, we study the impact of global financing conditions on firms’ borrowings abroad across different phases of global credit. While the abundant credit in the post global financial crisis period allowed firms to take advantage of relatively cheap financing abroad, we show that firms’ access to external finance has declined since 2013. We find that since 2013, lenders are differentiating across borrowers and it is specifically the less risky and more profitable firms that are increasing their foreign borrowings even at the times of higher global risk. We do not find evidence of regional and domestic credit offsetting this global effect. Furthermore, we find that the reduced access to external finance in the post-2013 period is associated with a decline in firms’ real investment activities, highlighting the real effects of global credit dynamics.

Assume data on Nj stock (asset) returns are available for p stocks, allowing us to construct approximate density functions f(xj) for (j=1, 2, …, p) from p empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs). Our portfolio choice is designed to rank ECDF-induced, ill-behaved f(xj) densities subject to multiple modes, asymmetric fat tails, dips, turns, and numerous overlaps. Older portfolio theory assumes that parameters like the mean, variance, and percentiles fully describe f(xj). All six of our algorithms avoid (expected) utility theory. The only available algorithm by Anderson for order-k Stochastic Dominance (SDk) needs a trapezoidal approximation. Our new exact algorithm for SDk is based on ECDFs and overcomes pairwise comparisons. We include algorithms for statistical inference using the bootstrap and one for “pandemic proof” out-of-sample portfolio performance comparisons from our R package ‘generalCorr’. We suggest a test for “zero cost profitable arbitrage” and illustrate our algorithms in action by using two sets of recent 169-month stock returns. We do not claim to suggest new optimal portfolios.

In the midst of the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the scope of the current study is to outline the channels of shock propagation across sovereigns under these unprecedent conditions. We use a sample of European countries for a period of twelve years that encompasses the COVID-19 as well as the turbulent period of the European debt crisis. We apply Bayesian Vector Autoregressive techniques to show a dramatic increase in sovereign contagion during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, even higher than the increase recorded during the European Debt crisis. The result works through government response and containment measures. Extensive and severe detachment from any financial fundamentals is evident. The announcements of fiscal and monetary easing measures have eliminated the tension in the markets. When focusing on the period of the pandemic the impact of the national culture emerges through the channel of collectivism.

Using a recent global sample, this paper estimates the effect of cryptocurrency usage on tax revenue collections. We hypothesize that greater cryptocurrency use undermines tax collections, and this result generally holds across overall tax collections, VAT revenues, and GST revenues. The other contribution lies in dissecting the direct and indirect channels of cryptocurrency use on tax collections. Results show that greater cryptocurrency usage reduces tax collections. Furthermore, larger government sizes increase tax collections, while the COVID-19 pandemic undermined tax collections. Finally, significant differences were found in the direct and indirect effects. The main results withstand a number of robustness checks.

Central banks around the world are exploring the possibility of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) for retail and wholesale use. While no major economy is yet to fully introduced a CBDC, some countries have begun pilot programs. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the potential benefits and risks associated with CBDCs, including challenges and opportunities associated with proposed CBDC regulation in the United States and the European Union. The paper also discusses the CBDC landscape in Asia. It highlights some of the key findings of the research presented in this special issue on FinTech and CBDCs. Lastly, the paper offers thoughts for potential future research in areas such as the actual designs of CBDCs and their uses, ‘DeFi’ versus ‘CeFi’, their interoperability and stability, and concerns over cybercrime.

In this study, we examine the trading book of a major dealer in the European unsecured money market, focusing on the impact of a dealer’s own funding liquidity risk on the pricing of his interbank trades pre- and post- the 2007/08 financial crisis. Our analysis reveals two key insights: First, utilizing a panel model, we observe that heightened funding liquidity risks for the dealer generally affect his quoted prices for interbank liquidity. Second, while in tranquil periods this effect is statistically significant but economically less pronounced, the collapse of Lehman Brothers led to a strong liquidity pricing effect: a one standard deviation increase in the funding liquidity risk of the dealer translated to a 11 basis points higher mid-price for overnight liquidity. We thus find evidence that funding liquidity risks exacerbated the overall contraction of money market liquidity during this period.

Funding: The authors acknowledge funding for data by the School of Management, University of St Andrews.

We examine the determinants of investor flows into, and the potential market fragility imposed by, U.S. municipal bond mutual funds. We find that funds have a linear flow-performance relationship that is consistent with effective liquidity management strategies. Funds use liquid holdings to partially offset net redemptions, but trade municipal bonds in proportion to flows. Funds increase their liquid holdings after flow volatility increases. The fact that funds use a vertical slice approach as a primary strategy is not surprising because they maintain small amounts of liquid securities. Our evidence is consistent with investors not being concerned with municipal bond mutual funds promoting run-risk.

We explore and summarize the evolution in bank capital regulations and bank risk after the global financial crisis. Using a new survey of bank regulation and supervision covering more than 120 economies, we show that regulatory capital increased, but some elements of capital regulations became laxer. Analyzing bank-level data, we also document the importance of defining bank regulatory capital narrowly as the quality of capital matters in reducing bank risk. This is particularly true for banks that have more discretion in the computation of regulatory capital ratios and are subject to weaker market monitoring.

This paper explores the impact of political connections on zombie business in the presence of massive economic stimulus. Although a stimulus plan may substantially ease financial constraints for a politically connected firm, it distorts the firm’s decision regarding market exit. Exploiting China’s 2008 stimulus package as a semi natural experiment, we show that a firm with political connections is more likely to become a zombie following such stimulus measures. Further analysis indicates that the zombification impact of the stimulus plan is more pronounced for the firms operating in the key industries targeted by the stimulus package.