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How banks respond to Central Bank supervision: Evidence from Brazil

Journal of Financial Stability 2015 19, 22-30
Central Bank supervision is one of the pillars of capital regulation. Based on a unique database built using supervision data from the Central Bank of Brazil, we evaluate the effectiveness of the Central Bank's supervision over banks given the Central Bank's proprietary credit rating and signaling requests for higher capital buffers. We also examine the main determinants of capital buffer management in addition to supervision. We find evidence that (i) Brazilian Central Bank supervision imposes excess capital buffer needs on banks, especially small and midsize banks; (ii) market discipline may play no role in driving capital ratios; and (iii) the business cycle has a negative influence on bank capital cushions, suggesting pro-cyclical capital management. We conclude that supervision plays a major role in markets where market discipline is weak and for smaller banks which act on pro-cyclical way.

CAFR 1999–2021, the past two decades and a look ahead

Journal of Financial Stability 2022 60, 101015
The China Accounting and Finance Review (CAFR) was jointly established in 1999 by the Hong Kong Polytechnic University and Tsinghua University. Over the past 22 years, CAFR has published original papers in accounting and finance with a focus on China-related research. In this article, we review the journal’s publishing patterns and the impactful articles it has published, with the aim of better understanding past research on China-related issues and recent publication patterns and trends as well as developing new insight that may inspire future submissions. We divide past CAFR articles by topic into six groups: (i) information disclosure; (ii) auditing; (iii) corporate governance; (iv) market efficiency; (v) corporate finance; and (vi) miscellaneous. We use these categories as the basis of our review for articles published before 2020. We also summarize articles by their regional setting, research methodology, and authors’ university affiliation. We then highlight the contributions of a few impactful CAFR articles that are actively cited in both the Chinese and English literature. We complement the literature review by going over China’s financial stability research in JFS. We also compare CAFR with other major accounting and finance journals in the Asia-Pacific region. CAFR stands out by welcoming research using a diversity of regional settings and research topics. Finally, we discuss the new editorial strategies that began in 2020. Under the new editorial policy, CAFR now publishes more non-China and more cross-disciplinary studies than it used to. We review several recent publications to demonstrate the change. Going forward, we intend to call for the publication of more high-quality papers in accounting and finance that are not restricted to a region, area, or methodology providing new insights into accounting and finance.

Regulatory capture and banking supervision reform

Journal of Financial Stability 2012 8(3), 206-217
Abstract We analyze whether banking supervision responsibilities should be concentrated in the hands of a single supervisor. We find that splitting supervisory powers among different supervisors is a superior arrangement in terms of social welfare to concentrating them in a single supervisor when the capture of supervisors by bankers is a concern. This result has implications for the design of banking supervisory architecture and informs current reform efforts in this field.

The optimal monetary instrument for prudential purposes

Journal of Financial Stability 2011 7(2), 70-77
The purpose of this paper is to assess the choice between adopting a monetary base or an interest rate setting instrument to maintain financial stability. Our results suggest that the interest rate instrument is preferable, since during times of a panic or financial crisis the Central Bank automatically satisfies the increased demand for money. Thus, it prevents sharp losses in asset values and enhanced asset volatility.

Contagion effects during financial crisis: Evidence from the Greek sovereign bonds market

Journal of Financial Stability 2015 18, 127-138
In this study, we test for the possible contagion effects of the 10-year Greek government bond yield. We first employ the well-documented adjusted correlation coefficient of Forbes and Rigobon (2002) and then we estimate an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model extended for volatility spillovers. Finally, we propose an extension of the corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC) model, which allows for structural breaks in the correlation dynamics. The suggested cDCC specification provides a natural testing framework for the correlation contagion hypothesis. Compared with other similar approaches, the proposed structural break cDCC approach allows for consistent inferences. The results do not confirm any contagious effects stemming from the 10-year Greek sovereign bond.

Cross-border coordination of prudential supervision and deposit guarantees

Journal of Financial Stability 2011 7(3), 155-164
We study the optimal joint design of prudential supervision and deposit guarantee regulations in a multi-country, integrated banking market, where policy-makers have preferences regarding profitability and stability of the banking sector. Non-coordinated policies will tend to yield too little supervision and too much deposit insurance. The paper concludes with recommendations on policy priorities in this area.

Why do banks target ROE?

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 54, 100856 open access
Until the 1970s, both banks and nonfinancial corporations relied on performance targets linked to their earnings per share (EPS). Over the next few decades, banks rapidly changed to emphasize return on equity (ROE) as a performance target. Investors seem aware of this change because ROE growth (EPS growth) better explains banks’ (nonfinancials’) stock market values. Also, manager compensation linked to ROE is more common for banks than for nonfinancials. This paper presents a model of a bank subject to fixed-rate deposit insurance and facing increasing competition that erodes its charter value. When the bank chooses its capital to maximize its shareholder value, its performance based on ROE appears better than its performance based on EPS. Thus, the increase in competition that started in the 1970s, along with fixed-rate deposit insurance, may explain banks’ growing preference for ROE over EPS as a performance target.

Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach

Journal of Financial Stability 2016 26, 62-77
This paper examines the determinants of CDS spreads and potential spillover effects for Eurozone countries during the recent financial crisis in the EU. We employ a Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) model which combines the advantages of traditional VAR modelling with those of a panel-data approach. In addition to variables that proxy for global and financial market spread determinants we also employ variables that proxy for behavioral determinants. We find that the determinants of CDS variance are neither uniform nor stable during different periods and different countries. For instance, as we move from 2008 to 2014 the impact of the slope of the term structure on CDS spread variance is increasing for peripheral countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Ireland, and decreasing for core countries such as Germany, France, Netherlands, Belgium and Austria. Other findings indicate that investor sentiment was an important CDS spread determinant during the subprime crisis, along with other factors, while spillover effects run from larger peripheral economies such as Spain and Italy to core countries; spillover effects from Portugal, Greece, and Ireland are of minor importance.

The role of on- and off-balance-sheet leverage of banks in the late 2000s crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2014 14, 3-22 open access
Extensive regulatory changes and technological advances have transformed banking systems to a great extent. Banks have reacted to the challenges posed by the new operating environment by creating new products and expanding their activities to some uncharted business areas. In this paper, we study how modern banking which gave birth to the off-balance-sheet leverage activities affected the risk profile of U.S. banks as well as the level of systemic risk before and after the onset of the late 2000s financial crisis. Towards this, we separate on- from off-balance-sheet leverage and capture the latter with different, yet complementary, measures which do not exist in the current literature. Special attention is paid on the deleveraging process that occurred in the banking market after the crisis erupted, which is an additional innovative feature of this study. Our findings reveal that leverage, both explicit and hidden off-the-balance-sheet, increases the individual risk of banking firms making them vulnerable to financial shocks. Reverse leverage, on the other hand, is beneficial for individual banks’ health, but is found to be harmful for financial stability. We also demonstrate that the banks which concentrate on traditional lines of business typically carry less risk compared to those involved with modern financial instruments.