Knowledge that Transforms

We find strong evidence that measures of social responsibility contribute to increasing the resilience of banks. This finding holds when social responsibility is measured by aggregated ESG scores provided by Thomson Reuters, both according to their older Asset 4 categorization and to the reformed ESG Refinitiv classification, and resilience is proxied by various measures of systemic and systematic risk. The results hold on the level of subcategories of the ESG pillars, where we find that, particularly, variables related to the long-term perspective enhance resilience. Moreover, in our international study, we find significant transatlantic differences.

Realistic credit risk assessment, the estimation of losses due to a debtors failure, is central for maintaining financial stability. Credit risk models focus on the financial conditions of borrowers and only marginally consider other risks from the real economy, supply chains in particular. Recent pandemics, geopolitical instabilities, and natural disasters demonstrated that supply chain shocks can contribute to financial losses large enough to threaten financial stability. Based on a unique nation-wide micro-dataset, containing practically all supply chain relations of all Hungarian firms, together with their bank loans, we develop a multi-layer shock propagation framework to estimate how economic shocks to firms cascade in the supply chain network (SCN), leading to additional financial losses to firms, additional defaults of loans and, hence, losses to banks’ equity buffers. First, we estimate the financial systemic risk of individual firms, by quantifying the expected financial losses caused by a firm’s own- and all the secondary defaulting loans caused by supply chain network contagion. We find a small fraction of firms carrying substantial financial systemic risk, affecting up to 22% of the banking system’s overall equity (assuming a loss given default of 100%). These losses are predominantly caused by SCN-contagion. Second, we calculate for every bank the expected loss (EL), value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES), with and without SCN-contagion. We find that SCN-contagion amplifies EL, VaR, and ES by a factor of 5.2, 6.7 and 4.4, respectively. Third, we showcase how the new framework can be used to assess the risks of a large real economy shock for financial stability. We simulate the financial losses from a COVID-19 inspired shock calibrated from firm-level employment data in the beginning of 2020. Our simulations show that without any interventions, system-wide bank equity would suffer losses of 6%. The framework can be used to design and test targeted policy interventions, e.g., optimally providing firms with enough liquidity-support to avert their default. By supporting selected illiquid (yet solvent) firms with additional liquidity totalling 0.5% of overall bank equity, the losses can be reduced from 6% to 1% of overall bank equity. These findings indicate that for a more complete picture of financial stability and realistic credit risk assessment, SCN contagion needs to be considered. This now quantifiable contagion channel is of relevance for future systemic risk assessments of regulators.

Basel III features requirements on bank capital and liquidity along with disclosure requirements. I study these prudential tools by developing a general equilibrium model with bank runs in a global game framework, where leverage, liquidity, interest rates, and the probability of a banking crisis are all determined endogenously. With timely disclosure about bank assets, the unregulated economy has efficient liquidity but excessive leverage due to a pecuniary externality, warranting a leverage restriction. Delayed disclosure gives rise to bank risk shifting, making leverage even more excessive and liquidity insufficient, which warrants joint requirements on leverage and liquidity. Empirical predictions and policy implications are derived and discussed.

This study explores the empirical link between income inequality and banks’ Loan Loss Provisions (LLPs) through a sample of banking institutions from 132 countries, applying a panel regression methodology. The evidence reveals that higher LLPs have a positive impact on income inequality, and the findings remain valid across various model specifications and income inequality measures. The results also hold against various robustness tests, such as different bank sizes, developed vs. emerging countries, the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis, and the controlling for risk. The implications are relevant for stakeholders, including regulators that endeavor to protect banking systems against expected and unexpected losses via LLPs. Specifically, since credit decisions have substantial effects on income inequality, regulators should mitigate the accumulation of LLPs, allowing more funds to be available for other banking system activities and functions.

The role played by the banking sector in supporting the green transition has been limited but is expected to increase substantially. We investigate whether the green loans granted by Romanian financial institutions during the period from 2010 to 2020 bear less credit risk compared with other loans in their portfolio. In this respect, we use a novel micro database with information on all green loans granted by a representative share of Romanian financial institutions, combined with debtors’ financial statements. We use different approaches to control for the small share of green loans and find that firms with a sounder financial profile are more likely to access green loans. Using a matched sample of non-green loans, we are able to disentangle the factors that contribute to the increase in credit risk, but we do not observe a significant risk reduction in the case of green loans.

In August 2020, the Federal Open Market Committee adopted a far-reaching Revised Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy. The framework contains two major changes from the original 2012 statement. First, policy decisions will attempt to mitigate shortfalls, rather than deviations, of employment from its maximum level. Second, the FOMC will implement Flexible Average Inflation Targeting. We show how to modify the rules in the Fed’s Monetary Policy Report to be consistent with the revised statement, how the pattern of falling behind the curve, pivot, and getting back on track in Fed policy during 2021 and 2022 could have been avoided by following inertial rules consistent with either the original or the revised statements, and how current and projected Fed policy for 2023 – 2026 is in accord with the prescriptions from inertial rules.

External imbalances played a pivotal role leading to the global financial crisis and were an important cause of turmoil. While current account (flow) imbalances narrowed in the aftermath of the crisis, the net international investment position (NIIP) (stock) imbalances persisted. This study explores the implications of countries’ net foreign positions on systemic risk. Using a sample of 470 banks located in 49 advanced economies, emerging countries, and developing economies over 2000–2020, we find robust empirical evidence that banks can reduce their systemic risk exposure when the countries in which they are incorporated improve their NIIPs and maintain creditor status vis-à-vis the rest of the world. However, only the equity component of the NIIP is responsible for this outcome, whereas debt flows are not significant. Similarly, we find that the mitigating effect of an external balance sheet on systemic risk is derived from valuation gains rather than from the incremental net acquisition of assets or liabilities represented by the current account. Our findings are particularly relevant for policymakers seeking to improve banks’ resilience to adverse shocks and maintain financial stability.

In this study, we estimate a Bayesian global vector autoregressive model to uncover the effects of financial stress on output growth, inflation, and interest rates, accounting for several advanced and emerging economies for a period spanning from February 2008 until May 2022. We construct a financial stress index applicable to all countries, tracking periods of financial instability in the economies, and employ shadow short rates as a proxy measure of unconventional monetary policy. This study provides strong evidence that financial stress shocks are transmitted abroad as financial stress increases in all the countries in the sample. Our results also show that financial stress innovation generates important domestic and cross-border output, inflation, and interest rate spillovers for several countries. Additionally, we identify the active role of the financial and bank credit channels in the transmission of shocks across financial systems, while macroprudential policy can intercept the propagation of the shock. Our results carry policy implications for monetary and regulatory authorities.

We examine the direct and indirect impacts of natural disasters on deposit rates of U.S. bank branches from 2008 to 2017. We capture the indirect impact by the spatial spillover effects of disasters, from branches directly exposed to such disasters to neighboring branches. We theoretically motivate our spatial framework by local competition for deposits among branches and provide empirical evidence consistent with this model. We find that indirect effects contribute to at least two-thirds of the total impact for deposit rate-setting branches. Rate-setting branches in affected counties, on average, raise their deposit rates on 12-month CDs by 1.5 basis points directly due to the disaster shock. However, there is an additional indirect increase of 2.7 – 4.3 basis points for all rate-setting branches, including those in adjacent but unaffected counties, due to the local geographical competition for deposits. We also confirm that the spillover effect occurs among branches across counties via an overlooked social connectedness. Moreover, and importantly, online and one-county banks are more likely to rely on the information channel embedded in the social connectedness effect in response to natural disasters. Branches in less concentrated local markets also respond more to the nature disaster and rate adjustments of neighboring branches.

We present evidence that firms with greater asset redeployability are more likely to engage in green innovation activities, as measured by corporate green patents and citations. This finding supports the notion of funding flexibility and withstands numerous robustness and endogeneity tests. The relationship is particularly pronounced for firms facing high climate change uncertainty, as well as those in high-polluting industries. Moreover, we find further evidence that the pursuit of green innovation is associated with improved firm value over the long term. These insights shed light on how asset redeployability correlates with both innovation outcomes and firm performance within the context of green finance for sustainable development.