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The impact of trade reporting and central clearing on CDS price informativeness

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 43, 130-145
We find that the magnitude of unique credit default swap (CDS) market information (constructed to be orthogonal to contemporaneous and lagged stock returns) declined after recent reforms that increased the level of post-trade regulatory and market transparency for CDSs. Around the same reforms, the ability of this CDS-unique information to predict future stock returns decreased. These results suggest the CDS market has become less of a “hidden” trading venue for informed investors since central clearing and trade reporting started

Time to buy or just buying time? Lessons from October 2008 for the cross-border bailout of banks

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 41, 55-72
This paper studies the country-level reaction of bank credit default swap (“CDS”) spreads and stock prices to bailout announcements in the US and five European countries in October 2008. Bailouts announcements are associated with bank CDS spreads narrowing, both for domestic and foreign banks, pointing to an important role for cross-border exposures. Movements in bank stock prices show mixed reactions, both domestically and cross-border, with banks receiving favorable government support outperforming foreign rivals. By January 2010, bank CDS spreads had stabilized at higher levels reflecting greater default risk, while bank stock prices remained significantly below their pre-crisis levels

The European Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive: A market assessment

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 44, 100689 open access
This paper provides evidence of the impact of the new European bank resolution regime on the sovereign-bank nexus. The implementation of the Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive (BRRD) is considered as an exogenous shock which provides the setting for a natural experiment. This investigation tests the financial markets’ perception of the effectiveness of the new rules in weakening the tight interconnectedness between sovereign and bank risk. A Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach is adopted, building evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS) market for banks and non-financial corporates over the period 2011-18. The main findings do not indicate a significant weakening in the interaction between bank and sovereign CDS spreads, compared to the corresponding evidence for the non-financial corporate sector. An overall narrowing of the gap between bank and sovereign risk occurs, which initially implies a lack of credibility of the BRRD in financial markets. However, substantial cross-country variations are identified, particularly for Italy and non-euro area countries. These insights make a significant contribution to the policy debate on effective regulation of the sovereign-bank nexus, in the light of recent developments in the EU post-crisis reform agenda