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Does climate risk influence analyst forecast accuracy?

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 75, 101345 open access
We examine how climate risk influences analyst forecast accuracy proxied by forecast error and dispersion. Using country-level climate risk estimated with time trends in droughts, we find that analyst forecasts are less accurate for firms in drought-prone countries. This effect of climate risk is stronger when climate risks are denoted in earnings forecasts, and when firms’ home countries have greater reliance on hydroelectric sources in electricity generation, more important agricultural and food industries, and active stances concerning climate change. Overall, our findings suggest noteworthy implications of climate risk on the financial markets via analyst forecast accuracy.

Environmental regulation and the cost of bank loans: International evidence

Journal of Financial Stability 2020 51, 100797 open access
Using a sample of 27 countries between 1990 and 2014, we find that banks charge higher interest rates and adjust other contractual features of their loans when lending to firms facing more stringent environmental regulations. Our evidence suggests that lenders’ concerns about the increase in environmental liabilities resulting from regulations is driving the results. Specifically, we show that firms facing such regulations have fewer participants in their loan syndicates, higher bankruptcy risk, and lower credit ratings, despite reducing their leverage. Overall, our results indicate that the observed higher loan spread is the result of environmentally sensitive lending practices by banks.