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Accounting accruals, heterogeneous investor beliefs, and stock returns

Journal of Financial Stability 2016 24, 88-103
We study how a firm's accounting accruals affect the heterogeneity of investor beliefs on the firm's value and further affect the firm's future stock returns. We document three findings. First, we find that the level of the heterogeneity in investor beliefs on a firm's value is higher when the firm experiences a larger increase in its accounting accruals. Second, we find that future stock returns following the earnings announcement are lower when the firm's accounting accruals increases the heterogeneity of investor beliefs to a larger degree. Finally, we also find that the effect of the accruals-induced heterogeneous investor beliefs on future stock returns is more pronounced when short-sale constraints are more binding. Overall, our empirical findings suggest that accounting accruals are a key determinant of the heterogeneity of investor beliefs. They also suggest a channel of investor beliefs whereby accruals affect future stock returns by affecting the heterogeneity of investor beliefs.

Are ICOs the best? A comparison of different fundraising models in blockchain-based fundraising

Journal of Financial Stability 2024 73, 101288
Blockchain is a ground-breaking technology with potential applications in fundraising. In this study, we analyze the blockchain-based fundraising data from 2019 to 2021 to investigate the differences between various fundraising models (i.e., ICO, IEO, IDO, and MIX). More specifically, in Study 1, we conduct ANCOVA and ANOVA to examine differences in fundraising success and token performance after listing between different fundraising models. In Study 2, we first explore the factors that affect fundraising success and token performance, and then verify whether the impact of these factors varies between fundraising models. The findings of our research have implications for both firms and investors, assisting firms in selecting the most effective fundraising models and aiding investors in identifying tokens with the greatest potential.

Escaping TARP

Journal of Financial Stability 2012 8(1), 32-42
This paper studies the factors that were associated with a bank's early exit from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in 2009. Executive pay restrictions were often a rationale cited for early TARP exit, and high levels of CEO pay in 2008 were associated with banks being significantly more likely to escape TARP. In addition, we find that larger publicly traded banks with better accounting performance, the stronger capital ratios, and fewer troubled loans and other assets exited early. Banks that raised private capital in 2009 were significantly more likely to return the taxpayers’ money early. The original eight TARP recipients, which received 165 billion of the 245 billion passed out, had weak tangible common equity ratios at the end of 2008, relative to other TARP recipients. Those eight banks raised common equity capital in 2009, and all at least partially exited the government's embrace.

Does bank supervision impact bank loan growth?

Journal of Financial Stability 2017 28, 29-48
We estimate the impact of a poor bank examination rating on the growth rates of individual bank loan portfolios. We use a novel approach to control for loan demand variation and estimate a fixed-effect model using an unbalanced panel with over 381,000 bank-quarter observations from the period 1994–2011. Our estimates show that a poor examination rating has a large negative impact on bank loan growth, even after controlling for the impact of monetary policy, bank capital and liquidity conditions, and any voluntary reduction in lending triggered by weak legacy loan portfolio performance or other bank losses. This previously unidentified effect is consistent with the hypothesis that the bank supervision process successfully constrains the lending activities of banks operating in an unsafe and unsound manner.

The effect of religiosity on trust and altruism: Evidence from China’s household borrowing

Journal of Financial Stability 2025 76, 101364
Using China’s religion and household survey data, we find that a high degree of religiosity increases households’ willingness to borrow, both formally from financial institutions and informally from family and friends. A high degree of religiosity could facilitate formal household borrowing by fostering trust in transactions. However, the trust mechanism cannot explain the impact of religiosity on informal borrowing. We hypothesize that a strong religiosity might facilitate informal loans by promoting altruism, and we find supporting evidence. The effect of religiosity on informal loans is more pronounced in transactions where the parties involved are intrinsically less altruistic toward each other.

Labor unions and bank risk culture: evidence from the financial crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2020 51, 100782
In this paper, we examine the effect of labor unions on bank performance during the recent financial crisis. Empirical evidence from the 314 largest global banks indicates that the stock returns and profitability of unionized banks are higher, and the default probabilities are lower than non-unionized banks. Moreover, unionized banks have lower tail risk in their stock returns, more tangible equity, more liquid assets, and better quality lending before the crisis than non-unionized banks. These finding show that unionized banks operate more conservatively and engage in less risk-taking. Our results imply that union preferences can shape the risk culture of banks.

Is there a bright side to government banks? Evidence from the global financial crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2016 26, 128-143
Using a sample of banks from 56 countries, this paper investigates the lending behavior of government banks during the crisis of 2008, and its association with bank performance and the economy. Contrary to the traditional wisdom, we find that government banks can play a beneficial role under certain circumstances. Government banks have higher loan growth rates than private banks during the crisis. In countries with low corruption, the increased lending by government banks is associated with better bank performance and more favorable GDP and employment growth in the crisis period. In contrast, the results for countries with high corruption are more consistent with the political view: the increased lending by government banks is associated with underperformance relative to private banks, and creates no beneficial effects on either GDP growth or employment.