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Funding innovation and bank systemic risk: Evidence from Wealth Management Products

Journal of Financial Stability 2026 85, 101565 open access
Wealth Management Products (WMPs) have become a major source of bank funding over the past decade. Using a unique WMP transactions dataset from China covering 99,893 transactions during 2010-2020, this study examines whether greater reliance on WMPs as a type of funding innovation increases bank systemic risk. We find that higher WMP dependence significantly elevates systemic risk, with the effects concentrated among smaller banks. Exploiting the 2018 Asset Management Regulation as an exogenous shock, we establish causality using a difference-in-differences approach. Our channel analysis shows that maturity mismatch amplifies WMP-related systemic risk, while higher WMP yields further increase fragility through funding cost pressures. Overall, these results call for a regulatory approach that moves beyond aggregate balance-sheet metrics and instead targets funding composition, maturity structure, and pricing behaviour-dimensions in which WMPs materially increase systemic vulnerability

Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data

Journal of Financial Stability 2013 9(4), 518-529 open access
Using a vector-autoregression (VAR) model and data from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, we provide evidence on the importance of news and consumers’ beliefs for housing-market dynamics and aggregate fluctuations. We document that innovations to News on Business Conditions generate hump-shaped responses in house prices and other macroeconomic variables. We also show that innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices are particularly important in explaining the path of macroeconomic variables during housing booms. To disentangle the effects of News on Business Conditions from other sources of expectation-driven cycles, we estimate a VAR where the News variable is ordered first. Innovations to News on Business Conditions generate Expectations of Rising House Prices. However, during housing booms, innovations to Expectations of Rising House Prices unrelated to News on Business Conditions account for a large part of macroeconomic fluctuations. Shocks to News and Expectations account together for more than half of the forecast error variance of house prices, and other macroeconomic variables, during periods of booms in house prices

Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007–2009: Lessons for the future

Journal of Financial Stability 2010 6(4), 203-217
An unsustainable weakening of credit standards induced a US mortgage lending and housing bubble, whose consumption impact was amplified by innovations altering the collateral role of housing. In countries with more stable credit standards, any overshooting of construction and house prices owed more to traditional housing supply and demand factors. Housing collateral effects on consumption also varied, depending on the liquidity of housing wealth. Lessons for the future include recognizing the importance of financial innovation, regulation, housing policies, and global financial imbalances for fueling credit, construction, house price and consumption cycles that vary across countries

Fintech: what’s old, what’s new?

Journal of Financial Stability 2021 53, 100836 open access
We study the effects of technological change on financial intermediation, distinguishing between innovations in information (data collection and processing) and communication (relationships and distribution). Both follow historical trends towards an increased use of hard information and less in-person interaction, which are accelerating rapidly. We evaluate more recent innovations, such as the combination of data abundance and artificial intelligence, and the rise of digital platforms. We argue that the rise of new communication channels can lead to the vertical and horizontal disintegration of the traditional bank business model. Specialized providers of financial services can chip away activities that do not rely on access to balance sheets, while platforms can interject themselves between banks and customers. We discuss limitations to these challenges to the traditional bank business model, and the resulting policy implications

Bank Resolution Plans as a catalyst for global financial reform

Journal of Financial Stability 2013 9(2), 210-218 open access
Bank Resolution Plans (Living Wills) should help with the resolution of systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) in distress. They should be used to clarify and simplify the legal structure and make it commensurate with the functional business lines of the institution. Living Wills could also prove the right regulatory instrument to achieve two further innovations in the resolution of SIFIs with cross-border presence. First, they could incorporate burden sharing arrangements between countries enabling burden sharing on an institution by institution basis. However, there would remain problems arising from the incompatibility of the laws governing cross-border bank insolvencies. Many countries are currently introducing special laws covering the resolution of SIFIs. This creates a window of opportunity to use Living Wills to introduce a second innovation: a consistent legal regime for the resolution of SIFIs across the G20 countries

Supervisory perspectives

Journal of Financial Stability 2008 4(4), 346-350
Confidence in both financial institutions and markets must be re-built; this requires (1) better (model-based) valuation processes; (2) a more robust capital basis, including clarification and strengthening of the Basel II securitization framework; (3) improving the liquidity regime; (4) greater transparency; notably relating to structured products and off-balance sheet vehicles; (5) improved information from CRAs. The need is to find a balance that still fosters innovation, without leaving the system vulnerable to excesses

Does digital transformation enhance bank soundness? Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

Journal of Financial Stability 2025 76, 101374
Compared with the previous literature on external FinTech, this paper is more interested in the role played by bank FinTech. On the basis of panel data from Chinese commercial banks spanning 2010–2021, this paper investigates the impact of digital transformation on bank soundness and its potential mechanisms. The empirical findings demonstrate a positive association between digital transformation and bank soundness, driven primarily by strategic and management digitization. Mechanistic analysis indicates that digital transformation improves bank soundness by mitigating risk-taking behavior and promoting diversification. The positive effect of digital transformation is more pronounced in state-owned and joint-stock banks, banks with higher liquidity mismatch and in the subsamples with greater levels of external FinTech development and economic policy uncertainty. Additional analysis suggests that digital transformation can still enhance bank soundness even in the presence of relatively lenient monetary and macroprudential policies, highlighting the harmonization and complementarity between internal innovation from digital transformation and external regulatory policies in maintaining banking stability. Overall, this paper contributes to the literature on bank FinTech, which focuses on the factors influencing bank stability. This study also provides a novel explanation for the relationship between financial innovation and financial stability

Finance, growth, and stability: Lessons from the crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2014 10, 1-6
This article introduces a special issue on lessons from the recent crisis on finance, growth, and stability. The papers in the special issue discuss (i) the benefits and risks of financial innovation and regulatory responses to these risks, (ii) the effect of finance and globalization on the real economy, and (iii) the role of government in providing credit guarantees. This introductory article provides a broader view on these issues and closes with ideas on the future research agenda in this field